KBNA / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Sep 11 · 06:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

76%

70%

62%

43%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 61.8¢Risks 61.75u

ICONNO 38.2¢Risks 38.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +38.25u · ICON −38.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	96.1%	—	—	72.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	97.7%	—	—	70.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	65.8%	96.4%	—	—	76.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	56.3%	29.2%	66.4%	—	65.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	23.2%	22.6%	12.8%	—	65.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	5.6%	28.9%	13.8%	—	59.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	26.8%	53.2%	42.1%	—	49.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	1.4%	48.4%	—	—	24.3%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	7.4%	50.0%	25.8%	—	34.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	1.7%	38.2%	—	—	37.4%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	16.1%	8.3%	51.7%	—	43.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	10.3%	16.6%	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	30.6%	32.2%	16.6%	—	33.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	16.5%	77.6%	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	58.7%	54.9%	4.6%	—	39.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	58.0%	43.0%	—	—	54.0%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	62.2%	42.8%	17.6%	—	53.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	58.4%	79.5%	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	64.9%	77.0%	36.1%	—	63.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	60.0%	88.8%	0.8%	—	73.3%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	71.0%	86.6%	55.8%	84.0%	70.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	73.7%	96.3%	63.0%	—	84.0%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	84.9%	93.7%	69.2%	75.4%	71.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	94.0%	94.7%	60.2%	—	53.9%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	93.5%	95.0%	71.6%	86.6%	61.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	90.2%	95.0%	72.4%	—	62.3%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	74.4%	95.6%	87.8%	75.5%	94.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	90.1%	96.3%	82.8%	—	89.5%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	88.3%	97.6%	78.6%	86.6%	89.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	95.5%	99.0%	90.1%	—	96.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	94%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	90%	93.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-11 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	92.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	92.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	91.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	90.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	43%	88.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260911-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗