KBNA / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 10 · 02:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

76%

73%

55%

53%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 67.1¢Risks 67.05u

ICONNO 32.9¢Risks 32.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +32.95u · ICON −32.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	69.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	94.6%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	96.6%	—	—	64.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	59.4%	94.8%	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	49.3%	23.5%	59.7%	—	58.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	17.9%	17.5%	9.3%	—	58.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	3.8%	22.8%	10.0%	—	52.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	20.6%	45.2%	34.5%	—	41.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	0.8%	40.3%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	4.9%	41.7%	19.5%	—	27.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	1.0%	30.3%	—	—	29.6%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	11.3%	5.4%	43.0%	—	35.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	6.9%	11.6%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	23.0%	24.4%	11.5%	—	25.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	11.3%	69.9%	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	49.0%	45.1%	2.7%	—	30.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	48.0%	33.5%	—	—	44.0%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	52.1%	33.0%	11.8%	—	42.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	47.9%	71.2%	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	54.4%	67.9%	26.4%	—	53.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	48.9%	82.5%	0.4%	—	63.3%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	60.4%	79.3%	44.2%	75.8%	59.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	63.0%	93.0%	51.2%	—	75.6%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	76.4%	88.8%	57.4%	64.6%	59.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.1%	89.1%	90.2%	47.4%	—	41.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	88.0%	90.5%	59.3%	78.0%	48.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	82.7%	90.2%	59.7%	—	48.6%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.8%	61.4%	91.1%	78.8%	62.8%	88.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	81.9%	92.0%	71.5%	—	80.8%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	78.6%	94.3%	65.4%	76.2%	79.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	90.1%	97.2%	80.8%	—	91.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	81%	94.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	92.7°F	3.1°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	93.1°F	4.3°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
National Blend	64%	91.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-09 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	90.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
ICON	53%	90.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260911-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗