KBNA / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 10 · 02:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

76%

73%

55%

53%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 67.1¢Risks 67.05u

ICONNO 32.9¢Risks 32.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +32.95u · ICON −32.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00	16.2%	65.5%	46.9%	37.8%	17.5%
2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00	16.2%	65.5%	46.9%	37.8%	17.5%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	16.2%	65.5%	46.9%	37.8%	17.5%
2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00	16.2%	65.5%	46.9%	37.8%	17.5%
2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00	16.2%	65.5%	46.9%	37.8%	17.5%
2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:00	16.2%	66.6%	46.9%	37.8%	17.5%
2026-09-07T16:22:03+00:00	16.2%	66.6%	46.9%	37.8%	17.5%
2026-09-07T17:07:09+00:00	16.2%	66.6%	43.9%	37.8%	17.5%
2026-09-07T17:52:14+00:00	16.2%	66.6%	43.9%	37.8%	17.5%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	16.2%	66.6%	43.9%	37.8%	17.5%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	16.2%	66.6%	43.9%	37.8%	17.5%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	16.2%	66.6%	43.9%	40.4%	33.2%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	16.2%	66.6%	43.9%	40.4%	33.2%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	16.2%	66.6%	43.9%	40.4%	33.2%
2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:00	16.2%	66.6%	43.9%	40.4%	33.2%
2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:00	16.2%	66.6%	35.9%	40.4%	33.2%
2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:00	16.2%	66.6%	35.9%	40.4%	33.2%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	16.2%	66.6%	35.9%	40.4%	33.2%
2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:00	15.7%	66.6%	35.9%	40.4%	33.2%
2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:00	15.7%	66.6%	35.9%	40.4%	33.2%
2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:00	15.7%	66.6%	35.9%	40.4%	33.2%
2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00	15.7%	66.6%	35.9%	41.4%	33.2%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	15.7%	66.6%	35.9%	41.4%	33.2%
2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00	15.7%	66.6%	42.9%	41.4%	33.2%
2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00	15.7%	66.6%	42.9%	41.4%	33.2%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	15.7%	66.6%	42.9%	41.4%	33.2%
2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00	20.5%	66.6%	42.9%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00	20.5%	66.6%	42.9%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00	20.5%	66.6%	42.9%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	20.5%	66.6%	42.9%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00	20.5%	70.8%	42.9%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00	20.5%	70.8%	44.6%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	20.5%	70.8%	44.6%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00	20.5%	70.8%	44.6%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00	28.2%	70.8%	44.6%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00	28.1%	70.7%	44.6%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00	28.1%	70.7%	44.6%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	28.1%	70.8%	44.6%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00	28.1%	70.8%	44.6%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00	28.1%	70.8%	44.6%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	28.1%	70.8%	44.6%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00	28.1%	70.8%	42.4%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00	28.1%	70.8%	42.4%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	28.1%	70.8%	42.4%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00	28.1%	70.8%	42.4%	34.7%	52.1%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	63.1%	70.8%	42.4%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00	63.1%	70.8%	42.4%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	63.1%	70.8%	42.4%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	63.1%	70.8%	42.4%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	63.1%	70.8%	42.4%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00	63.1%	70.8%	52.2%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	63.1%	70.8%	52.2%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00	63.1%	70.8%	52.2%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00	71.1%	70.8%	52.2%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	71.1%	70.8%	52.2%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00	71.1%	69.8%	52.2%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	71.1%	69.8%	52.2%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	71.1%	69.8%	52.2%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	71.1%	69.8%	63.9%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00	71.1%	69.8%	63.9%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	71.1%	69.8%	63.9%	71.6%	55.1%
2026-09-09T07:37:19+00:00	75.0%	69.8%	63.9%	71.8%	47.7%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	75.0%	69.8%	63.9%	71.8%	47.7%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	75.0%	69.8%	63.9%	71.8%	47.7%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	75.0%	69.8%	63.9%	71.8%	47.7%
2026-09-09T10:37:42+00:00	75.0%	69.8%	63.9%	71.8%	47.7%
2026-09-09T11:22:47+00:00	75.0%	69.8%	53.4%	71.8%	47.7%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	75.0%	69.8%	53.4%	71.8%	47.7%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	75.0%	69.8%	53.4%	71.8%	47.7%
2026-09-09T13:38:04+00:00	77.2%	69.8%	53.4%	71.8%	47.7%
2026-09-09T14:23:19+00:00	77.3%	69.8%	53.4%	71.8%	47.7%
2026-09-09T15:08:26+00:00	77.3%	85.0%	53.4%	71.8%	47.7%
2026-09-09T15:53:34+00:00	77.3%	85.0%	53.4%	71.8%	47.7%
2026-09-09T16:38:39+00:00	77.3%	85.0%	53.4%	71.8%	53.4%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	77.3%	85.0%	53.4%	71.8%	53.4%
2026-09-09T18:08:52+00:00	77.3%	85.0%	53.4%	71.8%	53.4%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	77.3%	85.0%	53.4%	71.8%	53.4%
2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00	74.4%	85.0%	53.4%	80.7%	53.4%
2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00	74.4%	85.0%	53.4%	80.7%	53.4%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	74.4%	85.0%	53.4%	80.7%	53.4%
2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00	74.4%	85.0%	53.4%	80.7%	53.4%
2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00	74.4%	85.0%	53.4%	80.7%	53.4%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	74.4%	85.0%	54.6%	80.7%	53.4%
2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00	74.4%	85.0%	54.6%	80.7%	53.4%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	74.4%	85.0%	54.6%	80.7%	53.4%
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00	72.8%	85.0%	54.6%	80.7%	53.4%
2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00	72.8%	76.2%	54.6%	80.7%	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	81%	94.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	92.7°F	3.1°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	93.1°F	4.3°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
National Blend	64%	91.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-09 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	90.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
ICON	53%	90.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260911-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗