KBNA / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Sep 11 · 06:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

43%

36%

32%

14%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.2¢Risks 32.20u

ICONNO 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.80u · ICON −67.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	66.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	52.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	90.2%	—	—	54.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	93.3%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	46.0%	90.1%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	35.6%	14.1%	45.8%	—	44.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	10.0%	9.6%	4.6%	—	43.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.5%	12.9%	4.8%	—	37.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	11.1%	30.1%	21.2%	—	26.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.2%	25.6%	—	—	9.5%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	1.9%	26.5%	10.1%	—	15.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.3%	17.3%	—	—	16.7%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	5.0%	2.1%	26.9%	—	20.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.6%	5.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	11.5%	12.4%	4.8%	—	12.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	4.6%	51.9%	—	—	15.4%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	30.4%	27.1%	0.8%	—	15.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	29.1%	17.7%	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	32.1%	17.0%	4.4%	—	24.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	27.9%	51.1%	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	33.1%	46.7%	11.9%	—	32.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	27.6%	64.3%	0.1%	—	41.0%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	37.4%	59.2%	23.3%	54.6%	36.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	39.3%	80.9%	28.3%	—	53.6%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	53.7%	72.4%	33.1%	40.1%	35.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	72.0%	74.1%	23.8%	—	19.1%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	69.3%	73.9%	33.1%	54.0%	24.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	59.7%	72.4%	32.5%	—	23.2%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	33.1%	73.2%	52.9%	34.5%	68.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	56.0%	74.0%	42.5%	—	54.5%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	50.0%	78.6%	34.6%	46.8%	51.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	67.6%	85.9%	51.6%	—	70.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	93.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-11 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	92.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	92.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	91.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	90.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	14%	88.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260911-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 93°F+ · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗