KBNA / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Sep 11 · 06:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

43%

36%

32%

14%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.2¢Risks 32.20u

ICONNO 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.80u · ICON −67.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T06:59:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00	8.0%	43.2%	27.7%	22.5%	8.6%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	8.0%	43.2%	27.7%	22.5%	8.6%
2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00	8.0%	43.2%	27.7%	22.5%	8.6%
2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00	8.0%	43.2%	27.7%	22.5%	8.6%
2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:00	8.0%	44.3%	27.7%	22.5%	8.6%
2026-09-07T16:22:03+00:00	8.0%	44.3%	27.7%	22.5%	8.6%
2026-09-07T17:07:09+00:00	8.0%	44.3%	25.2%	22.5%	8.6%
2026-09-07T17:52:14+00:00	8.0%	44.3%	25.2%	22.5%	8.6%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	8.0%	44.3%	25.2%	22.5%	8.6%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	8.0%	44.3%	25.2%	22.5%	8.6%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	8.0%	44.3%	25.2%	24.6%	19.3%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	8.0%	44.3%	25.2%	24.6%	19.3%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	8.0%	44.3%	25.2%	24.6%	19.3%
2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:00	8.0%	44.3%	25.2%	24.6%	19.3%
2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:00	8.0%	44.3%	19.1%	24.6%	19.3%
2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:00	8.0%	44.3%	19.1%	24.6%	19.3%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	8.0%	44.3%	19.1%	24.6%	19.3%
2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:00	7.7%	44.3%	19.1%	24.6%	19.3%
2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:00	7.7%	44.3%	19.1%	24.6%	19.3%
2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:00	7.7%	44.3%	19.1%	24.6%	19.3%
2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00	7.7%	44.3%	19.1%	27.1%	19.3%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	7.7%	44.3%	19.1%	27.1%	19.3%
2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00	7.7%	44.3%	24.4%	27.1%	19.3%
2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00	7.7%	44.3%	24.4%	27.1%	19.3%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	7.7%	44.3%	24.4%	27.1%	19.3%
2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00	10.3%	44.3%	24.4%	20.2%	32.0%
2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00	10.3%	44.3%	24.4%	20.2%	32.0%
2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00	10.3%	44.3%	24.4%	20.2%	32.0%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	10.3%	44.3%	24.4%	20.2%	32.0%
2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00	10.3%	50.0%	24.4%	20.2%	32.0%
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00	10.3%	50.0%	24.7%	20.2%	32.0%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	10.3%	50.0%	24.7%	20.2%	32.0%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00	10.3%	50.0%	24.7%	20.2%	32.0%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00	15.3%	50.0%	24.7%	20.2%	32.0%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00	15.3%	50.0%	24.7%	20.2%	32.1%
2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00	15.3%	50.0%	24.7%	20.2%	32.1%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	15.3%	50.0%	24.7%	20.2%	32.1%
2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00	15.3%	50.0%	24.7%	20.2%	32.1%
2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00	15.3%	50.0%	24.7%	20.2%	32.1%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	15.3%	50.0%	24.7%	20.2%	32.1%
2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00	15.3%	50.0%	23.0%	20.2%	32.1%
2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00	15.3%	50.0%	23.0%	20.2%	32.1%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	15.3%	50.0%	23.0%	20.2%	32.1%
2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00	15.3%	50.0%	23.0%	20.2%	32.1%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	23.0%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	23.0%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	23.0%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	23.0%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	23.0%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	31.1%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	31.1%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	31.1%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00	54.4%	50.0%	31.1%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	54.4%	50.0%	31.1%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00	54.4%	48.9%	31.1%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	54.4%	48.9%	31.1%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	54.4%	48.9%	31.1%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	54.4%	48.9%	42.4%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00	54.4%	48.9%	42.4%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	54.4%	48.9%	42.4%	55.2%	34.9%
2026-09-09T07:37:19+00:00	58.3%	48.9%	42.4%	53.8%	26.7%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	58.3%	48.9%	42.4%	53.8%	26.7%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	58.3%	48.9%	42.4%	53.8%	26.7%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	58.3%	48.9%	42.4%	53.8%	26.7%
2026-09-09T10:37:42+00:00	58.3%	48.9%	42.4%	53.8%	26.7%
2026-09-09T11:22:47+00:00	58.3%	48.9%	31.3%	53.8%	26.7%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	58.3%	48.9%	31.3%	53.8%	26.7%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	58.3%	48.9%	31.3%	53.8%	26.7%
2026-09-09T13:38:04+00:00	61.0%	48.9%	31.3%	53.8%	26.7%
2026-09-09T14:23:19+00:00	61.0%	48.9%	31.3%	53.8%	26.6%
2026-09-09T15:08:26+00:00	61.0%	61.6%	31.3%	53.8%	26.6%
2026-09-09T15:53:34+00:00	61.0%	61.6%	31.3%	53.8%	26.6%
2026-09-09T16:38:39+00:00	61.0%	61.6%	31.3%	53.8%	31.5%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	61.0%	61.6%	31.3%	53.8%	31.5%
2026-09-09T18:08:52+00:00	61.0%	61.6%	31.3%	53.8%	31.5%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	61.0%	61.6%	31.3%	53.8%	31.5%
2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00	57.4%	61.6%	31.3%	65.0%	31.5%
2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00	57.4%	61.6%	31.3%	65.0%	31.5%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	57.4%	61.6%	31.3%	65.0%	31.5%
2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00	57.4%	61.6%	31.3%	65.0%	31.5%
2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00	57.4%	61.6%	31.3%	65.0%	31.5%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	57.4%	61.6%	32.3%	65.0%	31.5%
2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00	57.4%	61.6%	32.3%	65.0%	31.5%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	57.4%	61.6%	32.3%	65.0%	31.5%
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00	55.6%	61.6%	32.3%	65.0%	31.5%
2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00	55.6%	52.6%	32.3%	65.0%	31.5%
2026-09-10T03:10:10+00:00	55.6%	52.6%	32.3%	65.0%	31.5%
2026-09-10T03:55:19+00:00	55.6%	52.6%	32.3%	65.0%	31.5%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00	55.6%	52.6%	32.3%	65.0%	36.8%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	55.6%	52.6%	39.8%	65.0%	36.8%
2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00	55.6%	52.6%	39.8%	65.0%	36.8%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	55.6%	52.6%	39.8%	65.0%	36.8%
2026-09-10T07:40:49+00:00	50.0%	52.6%	39.8%	69.2%	36.8%
2026-09-10T08:26:01+00:00	50.0%	52.6%	39.8%	69.2%	36.8%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	50.0%	52.6%	39.8%	69.2%	36.8%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	50.0%	52.6%	39.8%	69.2%	36.8%
2026-09-10T10:41:14+00:00	50.0%	52.6%	39.8%	69.2%	36.8%
2026-09-10T11:26:20+00:00	50.0%	47.2%	35.0%	69.2%	36.8%
2026-09-10T12:11:27+00:00	50.0%	47.2%	35.0%	69.2%	36.8%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	50.0%	47.2%	35.0%	69.2%	36.8%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	45.2%	47.2%	35.0%	69.2%	36.8%
2026-09-10T14:26:55+00:00	44.3%	47.3%	35.0%	69.2%	36.8%
2026-09-10T15:12:01+00:00	44.3%	47.3%	35.0%	69.2%	36.8%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	44.3%	47.3%	35.0%	69.2%	36.8%
2026-09-10T16:42:15+00:00	44.3%	47.3%	35.0%	69.2%	50.0%
2026-09-10T17:27:21+00:00	44.3%	47.3%	27.7%	69.2%	50.0%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	44.3%	47.3%	27.7%	69.2%	50.0%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	44.3%	47.3%	27.7%	69.2%	50.0%
2026-09-10T19:42:39+00:00	49.0%	47.3%	27.7%	31.7%	50.0%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	49.0%	47.3%	27.7%	31.7%	50.0%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	49.0%	47.3%	27.7%	31.7%	50.0%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	49.0%	47.3%	27.7%	31.7%	50.0%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	49.0%	47.3%	27.7%	31.7%	50.0%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	49.0%	47.3%	27.7%	31.7%	50.0%
2026-09-11T00:13:09+00:00	49.0%	47.3%	27.7%	31.7%	50.0%
2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00	49.0%	48.6%	27.7%	31.7%	50.0%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	50.0%	43.2%	27.7%	31.7%	50.0%
2026-09-11T02:28:28+00:00	50.0%	43.2%	27.7%	31.7%	50.0%
2026-09-11T03:13:36+00:00	50.0%	43.2%	27.7%	31.7%	50.0%
2026-09-11T03:58:45+00:00	50.0%	43.2%	27.7%	31.7%	50.0%
2026-09-11T04:43:50+00:00	50.0%	43.2%	27.7%	31.7%	14.4%
2026-09-11T05:28:56+00:00	50.0%	43.2%	36.1%	31.7%	14.4%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	50.0%	43.2%	36.1%	31.7%	14.4%
2026-09-11T06:59:08+00:00	50.0%	43.2%	36.1%	31.7%	14.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	93.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-11 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	92.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	92.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	91.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	90.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	14%	88.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260911-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 93°F+ · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗