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KBNA / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
8%
ICON
3%
WN2
2%
AIFS
1%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 4.2¢Risks 1.05u
VS
EPSNO 95.8¢Risks 23.95u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.95u · EPS −23.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.2% · 2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.6% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.7% · 2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 81.1% · 2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 77.5% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.6% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.1% · 2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.6% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.3% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.3% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.7% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.8% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.6% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.4% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.6% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.6% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.8% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.9% · 2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.8% · 2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.4% · 2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.7% · 2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.4% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.9% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:0008-28 06:0009-05 00:0009-12 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.9%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:004.5%—————
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:002.4%————16.9%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:001.0%—————
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:0011.8%————14.0%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:0015.9%—————
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:001.2%————13.7%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:003.6%————12.6%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:0013.1%—————
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:007.9%————11.2%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:008.1%—————
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:009.6%————11.8%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:007.1%————9.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:0013.7%—————
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:0018.1%————14.8%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:0011.6%—————
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:0021.2%————14.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:0016.3%—————
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:0013.0%————24.7%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:0010.2%—————
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:003.0%—50.6%——9.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:000.3%—22.7%———
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:000.5%————9.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:000.0%—81.1%———
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:000.1%—77.5%——12.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:000.5%—0.6%———
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:002.8%—17.6%——10.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:001.4%—18.9%———
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:001.5%—0.9%——9.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:002.0%—17.1%———
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:000.9%—16.6%0.2%—9.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:001.6%—8.0%———
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:000.5%—5.7%3.6%—7.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:001.1%—0.5%———
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:001.1%0.1%9.3%0.7%—3.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:000.9%—4.4%——0.0%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.4%9.3%3.4%—2.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%29.7%———
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%4.7%5.6%—1.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%12.8%——2.0%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.7%0.3%3.6%—3.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%1.2%——2.5%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%0.1%5.8%—1.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%5.1%——0.4%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%4.2%2.3%—0.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%3.8%——0.1%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%4.0%0.9%—0.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%1.9%——0.0%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend9%——Not retainedPending
IFS HRES8%——Not retainedPending
NWS forecast7%——Not retainedPending
ICON3%——Not retainedPending
WeatherNext 22%——Not retainedPending
AIFS Single1%——Not retainedPending
IFS Ensemble<1%——Not retainedPending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260912-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 08 · 05:08 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗