KBNA / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Sep 12 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

70%

70%

52%

21%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.7¢Risks 50.70u

ICONNO 49.3¢Risks 49.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.30u · ICON −49.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	94.9%	—	—	62.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	64.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	99.4%	—	—	72.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	80.7%	—	—	70.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	30.6%	—	—	71.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	82.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	83.4%	16.6%	—	72.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	67.0%	58.7%	—	72.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	12.9%	78.4%	35.8%	—	62.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	67.4%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	31.6%	81.1%	64.8%	—	61.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	10.2%	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	35.3%	73.5%	76.2%	—	57.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	28.1%	88.9%	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	47.4%	38.8%	73.1%	—	71.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	42.0%	58.9%	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	43.6%	33.0%	83.4%	—	60.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	45.3%	83.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	17.7%	82.9%	75.3%	—	48.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	15.2%	83.6%	—	—	34.4%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	12.3%	86.1%	68.8%	—	38.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	54.2%	80.2%	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	16.9%	81.0%	7.0%	3.1%	36.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	38.9%	78.6%	6.0%	—	33.6%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	33.1%	66.9%	4.5%	35.2%	9.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	45.2%	71.7%	38.1%	—	5.8%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	4.3%	86.3%	22.7%	33.1%	13.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	39.8%	75.2%	4.9%	—	22.8%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	31.9%	92.1%	61.9%	35.6%	23.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	62.3%	79.9%	48.6%	—	18.2%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	75.5%	87.8%	52.9%	37.2%	19.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	54.5%	85.6%	47.0%	—	54.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	75.0%	68.3%	42.1%	62.4%	12.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	69.0%	45.1%	53.3%	—	15.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	81%	91.6°F	3.6°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	90.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	90.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	89.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	88.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	88.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	85.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260912-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 11 · 15:15 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗