WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KBNA / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Sep 12 · 07:03 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
81%
WN2
70%
HRES
70%
AIFS
52%
ICON
21%
Consensus
58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 50.7¢Risks 50.70u
VS
ICONNO 49.3¢Risks 49.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.30u · ICON −49.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 58.6% · 2026-09-11T15:15:58+00:00AIFS Single: 58.6% · 2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00AIFS Single: 58.6% · 2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00AIFS Single: 58.6% · 2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00AIFS Single: 58.6% · 2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00AIFS Single: 58.6% · 2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00AIFS Single: 63.2% · 2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00AIFS Single: 63.2% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00AIFS Single: 63.2% · 2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00AIFS Single: 63.2% · 2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00AIFS Single: 63.2% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00AIFS Single: 63.2% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00AIFS Single: 63.2% · 2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00AIFS Single: 63.2% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.0% · 2026-09-11T15:15:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.0% · 2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.0% · 2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.0% · 2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.0% · 2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.0% · 2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.0% · 2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.0% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.0% · 2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.0% · 2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.0% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-09-11T15:15:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.3% · 2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.3% · 2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.3% · 2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00IFS HRES: 19.1% · 2026-09-11T15:15:58+00:00IFS HRES: 19.1% · 2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00IFS HRES: 19.1% · 2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00IFS HRES: 19.1% · 2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00IFS HRES: 19.1% · 2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00IFS HRES: 19.1% · 2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-09-11T15:15:58+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:0009-11 15:1509-11 23:3209-12 07:03
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-11T15:15:58+00:0058.6%80.0%65.0%19.1%2.4%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:0058.6%80.0%65.0%19.1%2.4%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:0058.6%80.0%65.0%19.1%20.7%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:0058.6%80.0%62.8%19.1%20.7%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:0058.6%80.0%62.8%19.1%20.7%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:0058.6%80.0%62.8%19.1%20.7%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:0063.2%80.0%62.8%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:0063.2%80.0%62.8%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:0063.2%80.0%62.8%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:0063.2%80.0%62.8%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:0063.2%80.0%62.8%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:0063.2%80.7%68.2%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:0063.2%80.7%68.2%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:0063.2%80.7%68.2%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:0051.9%80.7%68.2%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:0051.9%80.7%68.2%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:0051.9%80.7%68.2%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:0051.9%80.7%68.2%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:0051.9%80.7%68.2%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:0051.9%80.7%70.3%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:0051.9%80.7%70.3%70.2%20.7%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:0051.9%80.7%70.3%70.2%20.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble81%91.6°F3.6°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 270%90.3°F3.4°F2026-09-11 18:00Pending
IFS HRES70%90.5°F3.8°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending
NWS forecast57%89.0°F2.8°F2026-09-12 02:00Pending
AIFS Single52%88.7°F4.2°F2026-09-11 18:00Pending
National Blend44%88.0°F3.4°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending
ICON21%85.6°F3.5°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260912-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 11 · 15:15 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗