KBNA / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Sep 12 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

30%

26%

18%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 21.4¢Risks 21.35u

ICONNO 78.6¢Risks 78.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.65u · ICON −78.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	85.2%	—	—	39.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	96.8%	—	—	48.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	58.4%	—	—	45.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	11.8%	—	—	46.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	60.4%	4.7%	—	45.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	38.5%	30.4%	—	44.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	2.9%	50.8%	12.9%	—	33.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	37.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	10.0%	53.2%	33.7%	—	30.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	1.8%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	11.2%	41.7%	45.0%	—	25.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	7.5%	64.2%	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	17.2%	12.2%	39.6%	—	37.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	13.5%	24.9%	—	—	35.1%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	13.9%	8.6%	51.8%	—	25.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	14.3%	50.9%	—	—	17.1%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.9%	49.0%	38.5%	—	15.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.1%	49.0%	—	—	8.0%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.4%	52.1%	29.4%	—	9.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	16.9%	41.6%	—	—	6.2%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.0%	41.3%	0.5%	0.1%	7.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	7.9%	36.7%	0.4%	—	6.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.4%	23.3%	0.2%	6.1%	0.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	9.2%	26.3%	6.6%	—	0.3%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	43.8%	2.3%	4.6%	0.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	6.0%	26.9%	0.2%	—	2.1%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.5%	52.7%	14.9%	4.3%	1.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	13.9%	28.8%	7.6%	—	1.1%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	22.2%	38.6%	8.3%	3.7%	1.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	8.0%	32.5%	5.6%	—	8.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	18.1%	13.4%	3.7%	10.2%	0.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.3%	3.7%	5.8%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	40%	91.6°F	3.6°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	90.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	90.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	88.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	89.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	88.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	3%	85.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260912-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗