KBNA / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Sep 13 · 07:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

31%

25%

25%

24%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.5¢Risks 44.55u

EPSNO 55.5¢Risks 55.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.45u · EPS −55.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	61.6%	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	14.3%	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	—	—	—	52.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	61.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	2.9%	72.0%	9.3%	—	42.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	34.3%	71.5%	33.7%	—	37.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	69.1%	50.8%	—	30.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	65.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	7.5%	60.3%	57.1%	—	38.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	2.9%	62.1%	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	46.7%	70.7%	48.3%	—	29.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	29.6%	71.2%	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	5.0%	50.9%	26.9%	—	26.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	20.2%	69.0%	—	—	24.2%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	17.2%	76.3%	11.5%	—	19.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	40.6%	82.9%	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	27.1%	92.8%	26.3%	—	15.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	38.2%	54.0%	—	—	12.4%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	29.4%	86.1%	21.9%	19.0%	7.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	21.3%	87.9%	—	—	6.2%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	13.7%	89.6%	19.8%	0.1%	14.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	19.0%	85.2%	0.0%	—	18.3%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	19.1%	90.0%	21.5%	—	19.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	14.5%	90.8%	21.6%	—	18.3%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	36.5%	75.4%	27.6%	0.0%	21.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.1%	36.1%	84.2%	41.0%	—	37.3%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	44.6%	88.0%	35.6%	71.6%	17.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	72.4%	79.9%	33.8%	—	13.9%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	79.8%	73.2%	37.2%	60.1%	41.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	75.2%	85.6%	26.0%	—	33.8%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	78.6%	90.4%	36.1%	56.3%	31.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	85.9%	92.7%	46.7%	—	54.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	67%	94.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	94.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	93.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
ICON	31%	90.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	90.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	90.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	90.6°F	2.7°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260913-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗