KBNA / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 11 · 00:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.6¢Risks 3.30u

EPSNO 93.4¢Risks 46.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.70u · EPS −46.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	10.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	26.5%	—	—	7.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	26.9%	2.0%	—	5.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	36.4%	5.9%	—	5.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	14.2%	46.2%	5.8%	—	6.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	6.2%	24.2%	1.0%	—	5.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.3%	19.5%	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	6.3%	29.3%	4.1%	—	3.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	6.4%	31.1%	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	5.4%	67.8%	2.2%	—	1.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	16.6%	33.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	6.6%	44.5%	2.5%	1.0%	0.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	6.7%	28.4%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	2.5%	35.7%	4.2%	—	0.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.3%	19.0%	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.8%	31.2%	1.2%	—	1.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.9%	16.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.8%	3.5%	0.5%	—	0.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.5%	1.7%	0.0%	—	0.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.8%	2.7%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	1.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.3%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	16%	95.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	94.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	13%	94.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	92.7°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	90.1°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	91.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	90.9°F	2.6°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260914-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗