KBNA / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 11 · 00:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.6¢Risks 3.30u

EPSNO 93.4¢Risks 46.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.70u · EPS −46.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00	26.9%	1.6%	2.0%	19.4%	4.2%
2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00	26.9%	1.6%	2.0%	19.4%	4.2%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	26.9%	1.6%	2.0%	19.4%	4.2%
2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00	26.9%	1.6%	2.0%	19.4%	4.2%
2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00	26.9%	1.6%	2.0%	19.4%	4.2%
2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:00	26.9%	1.6%	2.0%	19.4%	4.2%
2026-09-07T16:22:03+00:00	26.9%	1.6%	2.0%	19.4%	4.2%
2026-09-07T17:07:09+00:00	26.9%	1.6%	2.8%	19.4%	4.2%
2026-09-07T17:52:14+00:00	26.9%	1.6%	2.8%	19.4%	4.2%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	26.9%	1.6%	2.8%	19.4%	4.2%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	26.9%	1.6%	2.8%	19.4%	4.2%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	22.3%	1.6%	2.8%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	22.3%	1.6%	2.8%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	22.3%	1.6%	2.8%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:00	22.3%	1.6%	2.8%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:00	22.3%	1.6%	2.0%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:00	22.3%	1.6%	2.0%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	22.3%	1.6%	2.0%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	2.0%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	2.0%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	2.0%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	2.0%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	2.0%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	3.7%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	3.7%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	3.7%	11.1%	45.1%
2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00	1.7%	1.6%	3.7%	36.5%	41.1%
2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00	1.7%	1.6%	3.7%	36.5%	41.1%
2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00	1.7%	1.6%	3.7%	36.5%	41.1%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	1.7%	1.6%	3.7%	36.5%	41.1%
2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00	1.7%	0.4%	3.7%	36.5%	41.1%
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00	1.7%	0.4%	0.5%	36.5%	41.1%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	1.7%	0.4%	0.5%	36.5%	41.1%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00	1.7%	0.4%	0.5%	36.5%	41.1%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	0.5%	36.5%	41.1%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	0.5%	36.5%	41.2%
2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	0.5%	36.5%	41.2%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	0.5%	36.5%	41.2%
2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	0.5%	36.5%	41.2%
2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	0.5%	36.5%	41.2%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	0.5%	36.5%	41.2%
2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	1.2%	36.5%	41.2%
2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	1.2%	36.5%	41.2%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	1.2%	36.5%	41.2%
2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	1.2%	36.5%	41.2%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	1.2%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	1.2%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	1.2%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	1.2%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	1.2%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	5.8%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	5.8%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	5.8%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	5.8%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	5.8%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-09T03:06:39+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	5.8%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	5.8%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	5.8%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	5.8%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	5.8%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	25.2%	0.4%	5.8%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-09-09T07:37:19+00:00	19.6%	0.4%	5.8%	10.7%	16.4%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	19.6%	0.4%	5.8%	10.7%	16.4%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	19.6%	0.4%	5.8%	10.7%	16.4%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	19.6%	0.4%	5.8%	10.7%	16.4%
2026-09-09T10:37:42+00:00	19.6%	0.4%	5.8%	10.7%	16.4%
2026-09-09T11:22:47+00:00	19.6%	0.4%	3.9%	10.7%	16.4%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	19.6%	0.4%	3.9%	10.7%	16.4%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	19.6%	0.4%	3.9%	10.7%	16.4%
2026-09-09T13:38:04+00:00	11.6%	0.4%	3.9%	10.7%	16.4%
2026-09-09T14:23:19+00:00	11.6%	0.4%	3.9%	10.6%	16.4%
2026-09-09T15:08:26+00:00	11.6%	0.1%	3.9%	10.6%	16.4%
2026-09-09T15:53:34+00:00	11.6%	0.1%	3.9%	10.6%	16.4%
2026-09-09T16:38:39+00:00	11.6%	0.1%	3.9%	10.6%	18.2%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	11.6%	0.1%	1.0%	10.6%	18.2%
2026-09-09T18:08:52+00:00	11.6%	0.1%	1.0%	10.6%	18.2%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	11.6%	0.1%	1.0%	10.6%	18.2%
2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00	15.0%	0.1%	1.0%	16.1%	18.2%
2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00	15.0%	0.1%	1.0%	16.1%	18.2%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	15.0%	0.1%	1.0%	16.1%	18.2%
2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00	15.0%	0.1%	1.0%	16.1%	18.2%
2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00	15.0%	0.1%	1.0%	16.1%	18.2%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	15.0%	0.1%	1.9%	16.1%	18.2%
2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00	15.0%	0.1%	1.9%	16.1%	18.2%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	15.0%	0.1%	1.9%	16.1%	18.2%
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00	10.1%	0.1%	1.9%	16.1%	18.2%
2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00	10.1%	1.0%	1.9%	16.1%	18.2%
2026-09-10T03:10:10+00:00	10.1%	1.0%	1.9%	16.1%	18.2%
2026-09-10T03:55:19+00:00	10.1%	1.0%	1.9%	16.1%	18.2%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00	10.1%	1.0%	1.9%	16.1%	9.5%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	10.1%	1.0%	1.6%	16.1%	9.5%
2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00	10.1%	1.0%	1.6%	16.1%	9.5%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	10.1%	1.0%	1.6%	16.1%	9.5%
2026-09-10T07:40:49+00:00	5.5%	1.0%	1.6%	6.0%	9.5%
2026-09-10T08:26:01+00:00	5.5%	1.0%	1.6%	6.0%	9.5%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	5.5%	1.0%	1.6%	6.0%	9.5%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	5.5%	1.0%	1.6%	6.0%	9.5%
2026-09-10T10:41:14+00:00	5.5%	1.0%	1.6%	6.0%	9.5%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	10.3%	0.0%	1.1%	6.0%	13.2%
2026-09-10T17:27:21+00:00	10.3%	0.0%	2.1%	6.0%	13.2%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	10.3%	0.0%	2.1%	6.0%	13.2%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	10.3%	0.0%	2.1%	6.0%	13.2%
2026-09-10T19:42:39+00:00	13.2%	0.0%	2.1%	3.2%	13.2%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	13.2%	0.0%	2.1%	3.2%	13.2%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	13.2%	0.0%	2.1%	3.2%	13.2%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	13.2%	0.0%	2.1%	3.2%	13.2%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	13.2%	0.0%	2.1%	3.2%	13.2%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	13.2%	0.0%	2.0%	3.2%	13.2%
2026-09-11T00:13:09+00:00	13.2%	0.0%	2.0%	3.2%	13.2%
2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00	13.2%	0.0%	2.0%	3.2%	13.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	16%	95.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	94.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	13%	94.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	92.7°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	90.1°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	91.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	90.9°F	2.6°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260914-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗