KBNA / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Sep 14 · 07:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

56%

52%

39%

36%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

HRESNO 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.70u · HRES −46.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	61.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	60.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	40.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	71.2%	—	—	39.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	73.1%	20.4%	—	36.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	82.5%	39.2%	—	37.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	60.6%	89.3%	40.9%	—	43.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	44.4%	75.8%	17.4%	—	42.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	8.8%	71.7%	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	47.5%	82.2%	39.3%	—	34.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	49.1%	84.3%	—	—	28.1%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	47.4%	97.7%	31.4%	—	21.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	72.9%	87.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	54.6%	93.0%	36.4%	24.4%	20.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	56.6%	86.3%	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	40.4%	91.0%	49.0%	—	21.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	31.7%	81.0%	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	26.8%	90.6%	33.0%	—	30.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	41.6%	81.0%	—	—	10.6%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	50.0%	54.4%	26.4%	—	22.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	27.6%	44.4%	1.0%	—	35.7%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	47.7%	54.6%	8.5%	14.7%	25.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	46.4%	31.4%	16.7%	—	26.3%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	55.0%	23.6%	19.9%	11.8%	45.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	51.3%	32.5%	9.2%	—	26.9%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	52.7%	36.8%	7.9%	28.4%	16.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	40.3%	31.2%	5.0%	—	14.7%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	41.4%	30.5%	8.3%	40.0%	29.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	56.0%	32.5%	7.5%	—	28.5%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	42.1%	39.1%	8.3%	48.4%	27.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	59.8%	48.4%	9.9%	—	35.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	94.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	93.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	92.9°F	2.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	92.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	39%	91.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	91.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260914-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 09 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗