KBNA / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Sep 14 · 07:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

56%

52%

39%

36%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

HRESNO 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.70u · HRES −46.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T07:11:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00	73.6%	29.3%	50.0%	62.9%	85.2%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	73.6%	29.3%	50.0%	62.9%	85.2%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	73.6%	29.3%	50.0%	62.9%	85.2%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	73.6%	29.3%	50.0%	62.9%	85.2%
2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00	73.6%	29.3%	50.0%	62.9%	85.2%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	73.6%	29.3%	50.0%	62.9%	85.2%
2026-09-09T07:37:19+00:00	70.4%	29.3%	50.0%	48.0%	59.7%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	70.4%	29.3%	50.0%	48.0%	59.7%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	70.4%	29.3%	50.0%	48.0%	59.7%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	70.4%	29.3%	50.0%	48.0%	59.7%
2026-09-09T10:37:42+00:00	70.4%	29.3%	50.0%	48.0%	59.7%
2026-09-09T11:22:47+00:00	70.4%	29.3%	47.1%	48.0%	59.7%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	70.4%	29.3%	47.1%	48.0%	59.7%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	70.4%	29.3%	47.1%	48.0%	59.7%
2026-09-09T13:38:04+00:00	57.9%	29.3%	47.1%	48.0%	59.7%
2026-09-09T14:23:19+00:00	57.9%	29.3%	47.1%	48.0%	59.7%
2026-09-09T15:08:26+00:00	57.9%	26.4%	47.1%	48.0%	59.7%
2026-09-09T15:53:34+00:00	57.9%	26.4%	47.1%	48.0%	59.7%
2026-09-09T16:38:39+00:00	57.9%	26.4%	47.1%	48.0%	62.3%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	57.9%	26.4%	26.4%	48.0%	62.3%
2026-09-09T18:08:52+00:00	57.9%	26.4%	26.4%	48.0%	62.3%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	57.9%	26.4%	26.4%	48.0%	62.3%
2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00	64.0%	26.4%	26.4%	58.1%	62.3%
2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00	64.0%	26.4%	26.4%	58.1%	62.3%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	64.0%	26.4%	26.4%	58.1%	62.3%
2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00	64.0%	26.4%	26.4%	58.1%	62.3%
2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00	64.0%	26.4%	26.4%	58.1%	62.3%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	64.0%	26.4%	34.9%	58.1%	62.3%
2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00	64.0%	26.4%	34.9%	58.1%	62.3%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	64.0%	26.4%	34.9%	58.1%	62.3%
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00	54.8%	26.4%	34.9%	58.1%	62.3%
2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00	54.8%	34.9%	34.9%	58.1%	62.3%
2026-09-11T03:13:36+00:00	63.2%	22.1%	39.8%	31.8%	65.1%
2026-09-11T03:58:45+00:00	63.2%	22.1%	39.8%	31.8%	65.1%
2026-09-11T04:43:50+00:00	63.2%	22.1%	39.8%	31.8%	42.8%
2026-09-11T05:28:56+00:00	63.2%	22.1%	41.8%	31.8%	42.8%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	63.2%	22.1%	41.8%	31.8%	42.8%
2026-09-11T06:59:08+00:00	63.2%	22.1%	41.8%	31.8%	42.8%
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00	69.7%	22.1%	41.8%	40.4%	42.8%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	69.7%	22.1%	41.8%	40.4%	42.8%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	69.7%	22.1%	41.8%	40.4%	42.8%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00	69.7%	22.1%	41.8%	40.4%	42.8%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	69.7%	22.1%	41.8%	40.4%	42.8%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	69.7%	24.8%	39.2%	40.4%	42.8%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	69.7%	24.8%	39.2%	40.4%	42.8%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00	69.7%	24.8%	39.2%	40.4%	42.8%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	68.9%	24.8%	39.2%	40.4%	42.8%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	68.9%	29.6%	39.2%	40.4%	43.9%
2026-09-11T15:15:58+00:00	68.9%	26.0%	39.2%	40.4%	43.9%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00	68.9%	26.0%	39.2%	40.4%	43.9%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00	68.9%	26.0%	39.2%	40.4%	30.4%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00	68.9%	26.0%	38.1%	40.4%	30.4%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00	68.9%	26.0%	38.1%	40.4%	30.4%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00	68.9%	26.0%	38.1%	40.4%	30.4%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00	74.2%	26.0%	38.1%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	74.2%	26.0%	38.1%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00	74.2%	26.0%	38.1%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00	74.2%	26.0%	38.1%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	74.2%	26.0%	38.1%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	74.2%	24.9%	38.1%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00	74.2%	24.9%	38.1%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	74.2%	24.9%	38.1%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	64.0%	24.9%	38.1%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00	64.0%	24.9%	38.1%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00	64.0%	24.9%	38.1%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	64.0%	24.9%	38.1%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	64.0%	24.9%	38.1%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00	64.0%	24.9%	40.2%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00	64.0%	24.9%	40.2%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00	64.0%	24.9%	40.2%	67.0%	30.4%
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	68.0%	24.9%	40.2%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	68.0%	24.9%	40.2%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	68.0%	24.9%	40.2%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	68.0%	24.9%	40.2%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	68.0%	24.9%	40.2%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	68.0%	25.3%	38.7%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	68.0%	25.3%	38.7%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	68.0%	25.3%	38.7%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	63.7%	25.3%	38.7%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	63.8%	25.4%	38.7%	41.0%	44.4%
2026-09-12T15:20:09+00:00	63.8%	31.5%	38.7%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	63.8%	31.5%	38.7%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	63.8%	31.5%	38.7%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	63.8%	31.5%	31.3%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	63.8%	31.5%	31.3%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	63.8%	31.5%	31.3%	37.7%	44.4%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	66.4%	31.5%	31.3%	37.7%	42.1%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	66.4%	31.5%	31.3%	37.7%	42.1%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	66.4%	31.5%	31.3%	37.7%	42.1%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	66.4%	31.5%	31.3%	37.7%	42.1%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	66.4%	31.5%	31.3%	44.3%	42.1%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	66.4%	30.2%	32.3%	44.3%	42.1%
2026-09-13T00:21:25+00:00	66.4%	30.2%	32.3%	44.3%	42.1%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	66.4%	30.2%	32.3%	44.3%	42.1%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	65.5%	30.2%	32.3%	44.3%	42.1%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	65.5%	30.2%	32.3%	44.3%	42.1%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	65.5%	30.2%	32.3%	44.3%	42.1%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	65.5%	30.2%	32.3%	44.3%	42.1%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	65.5%	30.2%	32.3%	44.3%	42.1%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	65.5%	30.2%	32.3%	44.3%	42.1%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	65.5%	30.2%	32.3%	44.3%	42.1%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	65.5%	30.2%	32.3%	44.3%	42.1%
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	68.5%	30.2%	32.3%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	68.5%	30.2%	32.3%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	68.5%	30.2%	32.3%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	68.5%	30.2%	32.3%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	68.5%	54.3%	39.5%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	68.5%	54.3%	39.5%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	68.5%	54.3%	39.5%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	68.5%	54.3%	39.5%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	69.4%	54.3%	39.5%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	69.4%	54.3%	39.5%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	69.4%	55.7%	39.5%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	69.4%	55.7%	39.5%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	69.4%	55.7%	39.5%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	69.4%	55.7%	39.5%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	69.4%	55.7%	39.5%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	69.4%	55.7%	39.5%	62.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	39.5%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	39.5%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	39.5%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	39.5%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	38.4%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	38.4%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	38.4%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	38.4%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	38.4%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	38.4%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	38.4%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	38.4%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	52.4%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	52.4%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	52.4%	35.5%	38.9%
2026-09-14T07:11:38+00:00	71.1%	55.7%	52.4%	35.5%	38.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	94.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	93.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	92.9°F	2.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	92.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	39%	91.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	91.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260914-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 09 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗