KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Sep 09 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

85%

82%

60%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.4¢Risks 75.35u

HRESNO 24.6¢Risks 24.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.65u · HRES −24.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	15.7%	—	—	64.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	69.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	53.2%	—	—	60.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	—	96.8%	—	—	68.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	90.7%	42.3%	—	72.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	56.6%	96.1%	82.5%	—	78.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	90.0%	95.2%	72.4%	—	71.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	88.9%	97.7%	84.6%	—	73.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.2%	58.1%	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	86.2%	91.3%	97.8%	88.8%	83.8%	76.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	88.5%	98.7%	—	—	70.4%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	82.8%	99.3%	91.7%	—	87.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	95.2%	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	93.7%	99.4%	95.2%	—	94.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	96.8%	99.5%	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	93.5%	98.3%	99.0%	93.8%	—	95.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.3%	98.4%	99.2%	—	—	97.8%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	98.3%	99.3%	92.2%	8.6%	96.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	98.9%	99.3%	—	—	96.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	99.4%	98.9%	96.9%	—	99.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	98.3%	99.5%	99.6%	0.3%	—	99.1%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.6%	16.8%	87.3%	98.7%	98.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.8%	99.8%	88.0%	—	99.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.1%	99.8%	95.1%	23.6%	99.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.3%	99.8%	96.0%	—	99.7%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.7%	99.9%	97.0%	99.7%	99.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.9%	99.9%	96.5%	—	99.9%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	99.8%	98.8%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	97.1%	—	99.8%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	100.0%	99.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	80.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	95.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	87%	99.4°F	9.8°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	93.5°F	4.7°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	92.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	90.1°F	6.1°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	89.3°F	7.8°F	2026-09-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 08 · 11:09 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89.3°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗