KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Sep 09 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

85%

82%

60%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.4¢Risks 75.35u

HRESNO 24.6¢Risks 24.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.65u · HRES −24.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00	82.7%	81.5%	49.2%	96.4%	71.9%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	82.7%	81.5%	49.2%	96.4%	71.9%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00	82.7%	81.5%	49.2%	96.4%	71.9%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00	91.3%	81.5%	49.2%	96.4%	71.9%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00	91.3%	81.5%	49.2%	96.5%	72.0%
2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00	91.3%	81.5%	49.2%	96.5%	72.0%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	91.3%	81.5%	49.2%	96.5%	72.0%
2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00	91.3%	81.5%	49.2%	96.5%	72.0%
2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00	91.3%	81.5%	49.2%	96.5%	72.0%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	91.3%	81.5%	49.2%	96.5%	72.0%
2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00	91.3%	81.5%	60.8%	96.5%	72.0%
2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00	91.3%	81.5%	60.8%	96.5%	72.0%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	91.3%	81.5%	60.8%	96.5%	72.0%
2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00	91.3%	81.5%	60.8%	96.5%	72.0%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	90.7%	81.5%	60.8%	60.3%	86.7%
2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00	90.7%	81.5%	60.8%	60.3%	86.7%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	90.7%	81.5%	60.8%	60.3%	86.7%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	90.7%	81.5%	60.8%	60.3%	86.7%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	90.7%	81.5%	60.8%	60.3%	86.7%
2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00	90.7%	81.5%	85.4%	60.3%	86.7%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	90.7%	81.5%	85.4%	60.3%	86.7%
2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00	90.7%	81.5%	85.4%	60.3%	86.7%
2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00	90.4%	81.5%	85.4%	60.3%	86.7%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	90.4%	81.5%	85.4%	60.3%	86.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	95.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	87%	99.4°F	9.8°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	93.5°F	4.7°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	92.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	90.1°F	6.1°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	89.3°F	7.8°F	2026-09-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 08 · 11:09 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89.3°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗