KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 12 · 10:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

92%

88%

87%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 92.7¢Risks 46.33u

WN2NO 7.4¢Risks 3.68u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +3.68u · WN2 −3.68u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	59.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	53.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	12.2%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	46.8%	—	—	54.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	95.3%	—	—	62.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	87.4%	35.6%	—	66.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	49.3%	94.3%	77.4%	—	72.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.3%	86.2%	93.0%	65.6%	—	64.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	75.8%	84.6%	96.4%	79.4%	—	66.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	79.9%	50.0%	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	87.5%	96.4%	84.3%	78.1%	69.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	83.8%	97.8%	—	—	62.6%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	76.6%	98.7%	87.8%	—	82.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	92.5%	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	90.2%	98.9%	92.4%	—	91.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	94.7%	98.9%	—	—	85.2%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	97.0%	98.1%	90.2%	—	92.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	97.0%	98.5%	—	—	96.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	91.4%	96.8%	98.6%	87.7%	5.2%	93.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	97.8%	98.6%	—	—	93.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.8%	98.8%	97.9%	94.4%	—	98.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	98.8%	99.1%	0.1%	—	98.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	99.2%	10.5%	80.1%	97.3%	97.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	97.5%	99.4%	99.5%	80.9%	—	98.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	98.6%	97.9%	99.5%	91.0%	15.1%	99.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	98.4%	99.6%	92.3%	—	99.2%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	99.2%	99.6%	93.9%	99.3%	99.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	99.8%	99.6%	92.9%	—	99.6%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	99.9%	99.5%	97.1%	99.7%	99.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	99.9%	99.9%	93.5%	—	99.4%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.9%	100.0%	98.7%	99.9%	99.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	100.0%	99.4%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	98%	97.6°F	3.9°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	98.6°F	4.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	97%	95.8°F	3.3°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	95%	96.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	96.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	88%	93.3°F	3.2°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	93.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 08 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 90.3°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗