KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 12 · 10:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

92%

88%

87%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 92.7¢Risks 46.33u

WN2NO 7.4¢Risks 3.68u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +3.68u · WN2 −3.68u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00	77.7%	68.9%	60.9%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00	77.7%	68.9%	60.9%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00	77.7%	68.9%	60.9%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	77.7%	68.9%	60.9%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00	77.7%	73.9%	60.9%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00	77.7%	73.9%	40.8%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	77.7%	73.9%	40.8%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00	77.7%	73.9%	40.8%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00	88.1%	73.9%	40.8%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00	88.1%	73.9%	40.8%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00	88.1%	73.9%	40.8%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	88.1%	73.9%	40.8%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00	88.1%	73.9%	40.8%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00	88.1%	73.9%	40.8%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	88.1%	73.9%	40.8%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00	88.1%	73.9%	52.5%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00	88.1%	73.9%	52.5%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	88.1%	73.9%	52.5%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00	88.1%	73.9%	52.5%	95.0%	68.4%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	87.4%	73.9%	52.5%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00	87.4%	73.9%	52.5%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	87.4%	73.9%	52.5%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	87.4%	73.9%	52.5%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	87.4%	73.9%	52.5%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00	87.4%	73.9%	80.1%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	87.4%	73.9%	80.1%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00	87.4%	73.9%	80.1%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00	87.0%	73.9%	80.1%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	87.0%	73.9%	80.1%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-09T03:06:39+00:00	87.0%	73.1%	80.1%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	87.0%	73.1%	80.1%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	87.0%	73.1%	80.1%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	87.0%	73.1%	78.2%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00	87.0%	73.1%	78.2%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	87.0%	73.1%	78.2%	53.9%	84.4%
2026-09-09T07:37:19+00:00	88.7%	73.1%	78.2%	80.8%	66.7%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	88.7%	73.1%	78.2%	80.8%	66.7%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	88.7%	73.1%	78.2%	80.8%	66.7%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	88.7%	73.1%	78.2%	80.8%	66.7%
2026-09-09T10:37:42+00:00	88.7%	73.1%	78.2%	80.8%	66.7%
2026-09-09T11:22:47+00:00	88.7%	73.1%	79.7%	80.8%	66.7%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	88.7%	73.1%	79.7%	80.8%	66.7%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	88.7%	73.1%	79.7%	80.8%	66.7%
2026-09-09T13:38:04+00:00	89.0%	73.1%	79.7%	80.8%	66.7%
2026-09-09T14:23:19+00:00	89.0%	73.1%	80.3%	80.8%	66.7%
2026-09-09T15:08:26+00:00	89.0%	85.9%	80.3%	80.8%	66.7%
2026-09-09T15:53:34+00:00	89.0%	85.9%	80.3%	80.8%	66.7%
2026-09-09T16:38:39+00:00	89.0%	85.9%	80.3%	80.8%	90.3%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	89.0%	85.9%	68.2%	80.8%	90.3%
2026-09-09T18:08:52+00:00	89.0%	85.9%	68.2%	80.8%	90.3%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	89.0%	85.9%	68.2%	80.8%	90.3%
2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00	88.0%	85.9%	68.2%	77.8%	90.3%
2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00	88.0%	85.9%	68.2%	77.8%	90.3%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	88.0%	85.9%	68.2%	77.8%	90.3%
2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00	88.0%	85.9%	68.2%	77.8%	90.3%
2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00	88.0%	85.9%	68.2%	77.8%	90.3%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	88.0%	85.9%	74.3%	77.8%	90.3%
2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00	88.0%	85.9%	74.3%	77.8%	90.3%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	88.0%	85.9%	74.3%	77.8%	90.3%
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00	89.4%	85.9%	74.3%	77.8%	90.3%
2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00	89.4%	70.2%	74.3%	77.8%	90.3%
2026-09-10T03:10:10+00:00	89.4%	70.2%	74.3%	77.8%	90.3%
2026-09-10T03:55:19+00:00	89.4%	70.2%	74.3%	77.8%	90.3%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00	89.4%	70.2%	74.3%	77.8%	89.6%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	89.4%	70.2%	69.7%	77.8%	89.6%
2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00	89.4%	70.2%	69.7%	77.8%	89.6%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	89.4%	70.2%	69.7%	77.8%	89.6%
2026-09-10T07:40:49+00:00	93.0%	70.2%	69.7%	87.4%	89.6%
2026-09-10T08:26:01+00:00	93.0%	70.2%	69.7%	87.4%	89.6%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	93.0%	70.2%	69.7%	87.4%	89.6%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	93.0%	70.2%	69.7%	87.4%	89.6%
2026-09-10T10:41:14+00:00	93.0%	70.2%	69.7%	87.4%	89.6%
2026-09-10T11:26:20+00:00	93.0%	71.3%	72.8%	87.4%	89.6%
2026-09-10T12:11:27+00:00	93.0%	71.3%	72.8%	87.4%	89.6%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	93.0%	71.3%	72.8%	87.4%	89.6%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	94.4%	71.3%	72.8%	87.4%	89.6%
2026-09-10T14:26:55+00:00	94.5%	71.3%	72.8%	87.4%	89.7%
2026-09-10T15:12:01+00:00	94.5%	71.3%	72.8%	87.4%	89.7%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	94.5%	71.3%	72.8%	87.4%	89.7%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	94.5%	71.3%	72.8%	87.4%	90.9%
2026-09-10T17:27:21+00:00	94.5%	71.3%	79.5%	87.4%	90.9%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	94.5%	71.3%	79.5%	87.4%	90.9%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	94.5%	71.3%	79.5%	87.4%	90.9%
2026-09-10T19:42:39+00:00	94.7%	71.3%	79.5%	80.3%	90.9%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	94.7%	71.3%	79.5%	80.3%	90.9%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	94.7%	71.3%	79.5%	80.3%	90.9%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	94.7%	71.3%	79.5%	80.3%	90.9%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	94.7%	71.3%	79.5%	80.3%	90.9%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	94.7%	71.3%	80.2%	80.3%	90.9%
2026-09-11T00:13:09+00:00	94.7%	71.3%	80.2%	80.3%	90.9%
2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00	94.7%	71.6%	80.2%	80.3%	90.9%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	93.0%	68.3%	80.2%	80.3%	90.9%
2026-09-11T02:28:28+00:00	93.0%	68.3%	80.2%	80.3%	90.9%
2026-09-11T03:13:36+00:00	93.0%	68.3%	80.2%	80.3%	90.9%
2026-09-11T03:58:45+00:00	93.0%	68.3%	80.2%	80.3%	90.9%
2026-09-11T04:43:50+00:00	93.0%	68.3%	80.2%	80.3%	83.9%
2026-09-11T05:28:56+00:00	93.0%	68.3%	81.5%	80.3%	83.9%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	93.0%	68.3%	81.5%	80.3%	83.9%
2026-09-11T06:59:08+00:00	93.0%	68.3%	81.5%	80.3%	83.9%
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00	97.0%	68.3%	81.5%	88.9%	83.9%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	97.0%	68.3%	81.5%	88.9%	83.9%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	97.0%	68.3%	81.5%	88.9%	83.9%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00	97.0%	68.3%	81.5%	88.9%	83.9%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	97.0%	68.3%	81.5%	88.9%	83.9%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	97.0%	88.2%	84.9%	88.9%	83.9%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	97.0%	88.2%	84.9%	88.9%	83.9%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00	97.0%	88.2%	84.9%	88.9%	83.9%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	84.9%	88.9%	83.9%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	97.8%	90.5%	84.9%	88.9%	83.8%
2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	84.9%	88.9%	83.8%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	84.9%	88.9%	83.8%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	84.9%	88.9%	93.0%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.6%	88.9%	93.0%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.6%	88.9%	93.0%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.6%	88.9%	93.0%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.6%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.6%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.6%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.6%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.6%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.0%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.0%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.0%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.0%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.0%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.0%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.0%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	83.0%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	87.2%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	87.2%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00	97.8%	88.2%	87.2%	97.9%	93.0%
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	97.9%	88.2%	87.2%	92.3%	98.1%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	97.9%	88.2%	87.2%	92.3%	98.1%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	97.9%	88.2%	87.2%	92.3%	98.1%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	97.9%	88.2%	87.2%	92.3%	98.1%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	97.9%	88.2%	87.2%	92.3%	98.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	98%	97.6°F	3.9°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	98.6°F	4.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	97%	95.8°F	3.3°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	95%	96.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	96.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	88%	93.3°F	3.2°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	93.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 08 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 90.3°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗