KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Sep 09 · 14:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

66%

57%

49%

44%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

EPSNO 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.60u · EPS −40.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	5.1%	—	—	40.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	28.4%	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	87.9%	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	73.1%	18.4%	—	45.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	28.5%	84.8%	58.0%	—	52.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	69.7%	81.6%	43.2%	—	42.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	66.3%	88.5%	58.7%	—	42.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	27.0%	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.9%	70.0%	88.0%	64.7%	55.8%	45.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	63.4%	91.5%	—	—	37.4%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	52.6%	94.1%	69.3%	—	60.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	77.8%	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	72.6%	94.5%	77.0%	—	74.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	81.7%	94.4%	—	—	63.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	87.4%	91.0%	71.3%	—	75.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	87.1%	92.0%	—	—	84.2%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	86.1%	92.2%	65.1%	0.8%	77.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.5%	88.9%	92.0%	—	—	75.5%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.7%	92.3%	88.6%	77.8%	—	90.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	92.1%	93.3%	0.0%	—	88.8%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	93.5%	1.7%	48.8%	85.3%	85.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	94.5%	95.2%	48.8%	—	87.4%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	89.4%	86.3%	95.1%	65.8%	2.5%	94.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	87.8%	95.1%	67.5%	—	92.8%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	92.1%	95.0%	70.5%	92.6%	95.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	96.5%	94.6%	66.2%	—	95.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	98.1%	92.7%	78.8%	94.9%	95.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	97.6%	97.3%	64.8%	—	91.4%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	97.4%	99.1%	84.8%	96.3%	91.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	99.1%	99.6%	90.1%	—	97.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	96.1°F	5.4°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	95.3°F	6.7°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	93.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	93.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	93.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-09 02:00	Pending
ICON	49%	92.4°F	6.7°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	91.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 09 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗