KBNA / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Sep 09 · 14:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

66%

57%

49%

44%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

EPSNO 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.60u · EPS −40.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T14:23:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T03:06:39+00:00	71.9%	43.9%	58.4%	34.8%	75.9%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	71.9%	43.9%	58.4%	34.8%	75.9%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	71.9%	43.9%	58.4%	34.8%	75.9%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	71.9%	43.9%	55.9%	34.8%	75.9%
2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00	71.9%	43.9%	55.9%	34.8%	75.9%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	71.9%	43.9%	55.9%	34.8%	75.9%
2026-09-09T07:37:19+00:00	74.2%	43.9%	55.9%	66.3%	49.4%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	74.2%	43.9%	55.9%	66.3%	49.4%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	74.2%	43.9%	55.9%	66.3%	49.4%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	74.2%	43.9%	55.9%	66.3%	49.4%
2026-09-09T10:37:42+00:00	74.2%	43.9%	55.9%	66.3%	49.4%
2026-09-09T11:22:47+00:00	74.2%	43.9%	56.2%	66.3%	49.4%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	74.2%	43.9%	56.2%	66.3%	49.4%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	74.2%	43.9%	56.2%	66.3%	49.4%
2026-09-09T13:38:04+00:00	74.8%	43.9%	56.2%	66.3%	49.4%
2026-09-09T14:23:19+00:00	74.9%	43.9%	57.1%	66.3%	49.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	96.1°F	5.4°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	95.3°F	6.7°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	93.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	93.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	93.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-09 02:00	Pending
ICON	49%	92.4°F	6.7°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	91.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 09 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗