KBNA / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Sep 16 · 06:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

24%

23%

14%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.2¢Risks 17.20u

ICONNO 82.8¢Risks 82.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.80u · ICON −82.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	23.4%	—	—	6.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	42.2%	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	19.8%	—	—	11.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	5.2%	8.7%	4.0%	—	4.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	12.0%	36.4%	8.7%	—	7.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	13.8%	32.3%	8.1%	9.0%	7.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	34.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	6.2%	45.2%	6.9%	—	12.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	2.7%	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	10.1%	49.2%	4.5%	—	17.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	7.2%	45.7%	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	22.8%	39.6%	3.4%	—	13.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	17.8%	44.6%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	18.4%	45.4%	1.0%	—	13.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	13.7%	36.1%	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	2.0%	27.9%	3.4%	—	19.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	16.4%	35.3%	—	—	18.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	1.1%	—	1.1%	12.8%	13.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	12.7%	41.6%	—	—	13.8%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	9.4%	41.3%	1.6%	—	20.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	12.9%	29.6%	0.0%	—	17.5%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	8.1%	28.9%	0.5%	16.0%	16.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	14.5%	23.4%	1.7%	—	14.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	14.4%	17.4%	1.3%	15.9%	12.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	13.5%	24.8%	1.2%	—	6.8%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	7.4%	19.1%	0.9%	14.1%	5.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	11.8%	27.6%	0.7%	—	5.0%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	8.9%	24.5%	0.7%	11.5%	7.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	7.0%	8.0%	0.2%	—	3.4%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	6.1%	13.4%	0.2%	7.7%	4.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.3%	30.9%	1.0%	—	5.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	57%	100.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	97.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	96.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	97.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	97.0°F	2.5°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	96.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	93.8°F	3.6°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 09 · 07:37 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗