KBNA / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 13 · 07:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

92%

91%

89%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 93.4¢Risks 23.35u

WN2NO 6.6¢Risks 1.65u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +1.65u · WN2 −1.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	67.1%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	80.2%	—	—	53.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	71.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	92.5%	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	94.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	80.2%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	55.6%	65.7%	50.7%	—	52.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	74.6%	93.1%	68.3%	—	65.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	79.5%	92.7%	69.7%	71.7%	67.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	93.9%	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	67.7%	97.0%	69.8%	—	80.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.7%	54.9%	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	79.3%	98.1%	65.5%	—	88.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	75.4%	97.9%	—	—	83.8%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.1%	92.7%	97.3%	64.6%	—	85.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	90.8%	98.3%	—	—	91.2%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	92.1%	98.6%	49.1%	—	88.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	90.0%	97.8%	—	—	87.3%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	65.2%	96.8%	72.9%	—	94.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	93.7%	98.4%	—	—	94.6%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.4%	61.2%	—	61.2%	92.6%	93.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	93.5%	99.3%	—	—	94.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	92.3%	99.4%	72.7%	—	97.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	95.5%	98.9%	1.4%	—	97.1%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	93.5%	99.1%	64.8%	97.3%	97.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	97.5%	98.9%	81.7%	—	97.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	98.0%	98.6%	81.8%	98.3%	97.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	98.4%	99.5%	83.4%	—	96.0%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	90.5%	97.2%	99.4%	83.5%	98.9%	96.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	98.9%	99.8%	85.3%	—	96.8%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	98.9%	99.8%	87.8%	99.3%	98.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	99.0%	99.2%	80.8%	—	97.6%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	97.6%	99.2%	99.8%	87.5%	99.4%	98.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.8%	99.7%	100.0%	96.6%	—	99.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	>99%	94.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	98%	94.9°F	2.6°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	95%	96.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
ICON	94%	96.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	96.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	91%	96.3°F	5.1°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	94.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 09 · 07:37 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗