KBNA / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 16 · 04:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

92%

89%

74%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 85.1¢Risks 85.15u

ICONNO 14.9¢Risks 14.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.85u · ICON −14.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T04:21:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-10T03:10:10+00:00	64.2%	54.0%	55.0%	56.5%	80.2%
2026-09-10T03:55:19+00:00	64.2%	54.0%	55.0%	56.5%	80.2%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00	64.2%	54.0%	55.0%	56.5%	75.3%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	64.2%	54.0%	56.7%	56.5%	75.3%
2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00	64.2%	54.0%	56.7%	56.5%	75.3%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	64.2%	54.0%	56.7%	56.5%	75.3%
2026-09-10T07:40:49+00:00	63.1%	54.0%	56.7%	75.1%	75.3%
2026-09-10T08:26:01+00:00	63.1%	54.0%	56.7%	75.1%	75.3%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	63.1%	54.0%	56.7%	75.1%	75.3%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	63.1%	54.0%	56.7%	75.1%	75.3%
2026-09-10T10:41:14+00:00	63.1%	54.0%	56.7%	75.1%	75.3%
2026-09-10T11:26:20+00:00	63.1%	52.5%	64.0%	75.1%	75.3%
2026-09-10T12:11:27+00:00	63.1%	52.5%	64.0%	75.1%	75.3%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	63.1%	52.5%	64.0%	75.1%	75.3%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	71.2%	52.5%	64.0%	75.1%	75.3%
2026-09-10T14:26:55+00:00	71.2%	52.5%	64.0%	75.0%	75.8%
2026-09-10T15:12:01+00:00	71.2%	52.5%	64.0%	75.0%	75.8%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	71.2%	52.5%	64.0%	75.0%	75.8%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	71.2%	52.5%	64.0%	75.0%	79.0%
2026-09-10T17:27:21+00:00	71.2%	52.5%	62.3%	75.0%	79.0%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	71.2%	52.5%	62.3%	75.0%	79.0%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	71.2%	52.5%	62.3%	75.0%	79.0%
2026-09-10T19:42:39+00:00	76.0%	52.5%	62.3%	66.8%	79.0%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	76.0%	52.5%	62.3%	66.8%	79.0%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	76.0%	52.5%	62.3%	66.8%	79.0%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	76.0%	52.5%	62.3%	66.8%	79.0%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	76.0%	52.5%	62.3%	66.8%	79.0%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	76.0%	52.5%	72.0%	66.8%	79.0%
2026-09-11T00:13:09+00:00	76.0%	52.5%	72.0%	66.8%	79.0%
2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00	76.0%	53.7%	72.0%	66.8%	79.0%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	74.3%	48.8%	72.0%	66.8%	79.0%
2026-09-11T02:28:28+00:00	74.3%	48.8%	72.0%	66.8%	79.0%
2026-09-11T03:13:36+00:00	74.3%	48.8%	72.0%	66.8%	79.0%
2026-09-11T03:58:45+00:00	74.3%	48.8%	72.0%	66.8%	79.0%
2026-09-11T04:43:50+00:00	74.3%	48.8%	72.0%	66.8%	66.8%
2026-09-11T05:28:56+00:00	74.3%	48.8%	74.2%	66.8%	66.8%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	74.3%	48.8%	74.2%	66.8%	66.8%
2026-09-11T06:59:08+00:00	74.3%	48.8%	74.2%	66.8%	66.8%
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00	82.6%	48.8%	74.2%	71.3%	66.8%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	82.6%	48.8%	74.2%	71.3%	66.8%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	82.6%	48.8%	74.2%	71.3%	66.8%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00	82.6%	48.8%	74.2%	71.3%	66.8%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	82.6%	48.8%	74.2%	71.3%	66.8%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	82.6%	82.0%	78.1%	71.3%	66.8%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	82.6%	82.0%	78.1%	71.3%	66.8%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00	82.6%	82.0%	78.1%	71.3%	66.8%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	85.0%	82.0%	78.1%	71.3%	66.8%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	85.1%	86.1%	78.1%	71.3%	66.8%
2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00	85.1%	83.1%	78.1%	71.3%	66.8%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00	85.1%	83.1%	78.1%	71.3%	66.8%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00	85.1%	83.1%	78.1%	71.3%	76.1%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00	85.1%	83.1%	75.1%	71.3%	76.1%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00	85.1%	83.1%	75.1%	71.3%	76.1%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00	85.1%	83.1%	75.1%	71.3%	76.1%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00	86.4%	83.1%	75.1%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	86.4%	83.1%	75.1%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00	86.4%	83.1%	75.1%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00	86.4%	83.1%	75.1%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	86.4%	83.1%	75.1%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	86.4%	82.0%	74.3%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00	86.4%	82.0%	74.3%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	86.4%	82.0%	74.3%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	85.1%	82.0%	74.3%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00	85.1%	82.0%	74.3%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00	85.1%	82.0%	74.3%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	85.1%	82.0%	74.3%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	85.1%	82.0%	74.3%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00	85.1%	82.0%	82.1%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00	85.1%	82.0%	82.1%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00	85.1%	82.0%	82.1%	91.1%	76.1%
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	85.0%	82.0%	82.1%	71.6%	89.7%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	85.0%	82.0%	82.1%	71.6%	89.7%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	85.0%	82.0%	82.1%	71.6%	89.7%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	85.0%	82.0%	82.1%	71.6%	89.7%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	85.0%	82.0%	82.1%	71.6%	89.7%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	85.0%	87.6%	79.5%	71.6%	89.7%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	85.0%	87.6%	79.5%	71.6%	89.7%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	85.0%	87.6%	79.5%	71.6%	89.7%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	86.4%	87.6%	79.5%	71.6%	89.7%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	86.5%	87.6%	79.5%	66.8%	89.6%
2026-09-12T15:20:09+00:00	86.5%	91.1%	79.5%	71.6%	89.6%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	86.5%	91.1%	79.5%	71.6%	89.6%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	86.5%	91.1%	79.5%	71.6%	89.6%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	86.5%	91.1%	78.0%	71.6%	89.6%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	86.5%	91.1%	78.0%	71.6%	89.6%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	86.5%	91.1%	78.0%	71.6%	89.6%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	83.0%	91.1%	78.0%	71.6%	87.6%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	83.0%	91.1%	78.0%	71.6%	87.6%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	83.0%	91.1%	78.0%	71.6%	87.6%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	83.0%	91.1%	78.0%	71.6%	87.6%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	83.0%	91.1%	78.0%	82.8%	87.6%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	83.0%	90.5%	75.7%	82.8%	87.6%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	83.0%	90.5%	75.7%	82.8%	87.6%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	83.0%	90.5%	75.7%	82.8%	87.6%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	84.5%	90.5%	75.7%	82.8%	87.6%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	84.5%	90.5%	75.7%	82.8%	87.6%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	84.5%	90.5%	75.7%	82.8%	87.6%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	84.5%	90.5%	75.7%	82.8%	87.6%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	84.5%	90.5%	75.7%	82.8%	87.6%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	84.5%	90.5%	75.7%	82.8%	87.6%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	84.5%	90.5%	75.7%	82.8%	87.6%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	84.5%	90.5%	75.7%	82.8%	87.6%
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	87.4%	90.5%	75.7%	92.4%	87.2%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	87.4%	90.5%	75.7%	92.4%	87.2%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	87.4%	90.5%	75.7%	92.4%	87.2%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	87.4%	90.5%	75.7%	92.4%	87.2%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	87.4%	97.5%	80.3%	92.4%	87.2%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	87.4%	97.5%	80.3%	92.4%	87.2%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	87.4%	97.5%	80.3%	92.4%	87.2%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	87.4%	97.5%	80.3%	92.4%	87.2%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	87.9%	97.4%	80.3%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	87.9%	97.4%	80.3%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	87.9%	97.7%	80.3%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	87.9%	97.7%	80.3%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	87.9%	97.7%	78.7%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	87.9%	97.7%	78.7%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	87.9%	97.7%	78.7%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	87.9%	97.7%	78.7%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	90.0%	97.7%	78.7%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	90.0%	97.7%	78.7%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	90.0%	97.7%	78.7%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	90.0%	97.7%	78.7%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	90.0%	97.7%	81.0%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	90.0%	97.7%	81.0%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	90.0%	97.7%	81.0%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	90.0%	97.7%	81.0%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	88.4%	97.7%	81.0%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	88.4%	97.7%	81.0%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	88.4%	97.7%	81.0%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	88.4%	97.7%	81.0%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	88.4%	97.7%	89.7%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	88.4%	97.7%	89.7%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	88.4%	97.7%	89.7%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	88.4%	97.7%	89.7%	92.4%	87.1%
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	91.7%	97.7%	89.7%	95.4%	77.8%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	91.7%	97.7%	89.7%	95.4%	77.8%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	91.7%	97.7%	89.7%	95.4%	77.8%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	91.7%	97.7%	89.7%	95.4%	77.8%
2026-09-14T10:57:25+00:00	91.7%	98.1%	89.7%	95.4%	77.8%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	91.7%	98.1%	89.7%	95.4%	77.8%
2026-09-14T12:27:38+00:00	91.7%	98.1%	89.7%	95.4%	77.8%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	91.7%	98.1%	89.7%	95.4%	77.8%
2026-09-14T13:57:48+00:00	90.2%	98.0%	89.6%	95.4%	77.7%
2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00	90.2%	98.0%	89.6%	95.4%	77.7%
2026-09-14T15:28:38+00:00	90.2%	98.2%	89.6%	95.4%	77.7%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	90.2%	98.2%	89.6%	95.4%	77.7%
2026-09-14T16:58:56+00:00	90.2%	98.2%	89.6%	95.4%	77.7%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	90.2%	98.2%	89.6%	95.4%	77.7%
2026-09-14T18:29:10+00:00	90.2%	98.2%	89.6%	95.4%	77.7%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	90.2%	98.2%	89.6%	95.4%	77.7%
2026-09-14T19:59:20+00:00	91.7%	98.2%	89.6%	94.4%	77.7%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	91.7%	98.2%	89.6%	94.4%	77.7%
2026-09-14T21:29:31+00:00	91.7%	98.2%	89.6%	94.4%	77.7%
2026-09-14T22:14:36+00:00	91.7%	98.2%	89.6%	94.4%	77.7%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	91.7%	98.1%	87.9%	94.4%	77.7%
2026-09-14T23:44:50+00:00	91.7%	98.1%	87.9%	94.4%	77.6%
2026-09-15T00:29:56+00:00	91.7%	98.1%	87.9%	94.4%	77.6%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	91.7%	98.1%	87.9%	94.4%	77.6%
2026-09-15T02:00:09+00:00	91.0%	98.1%	87.9%	94.4%	77.6%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	91.0%	98.1%	87.9%	94.4%	77.6%
2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00	91.0%	98.1%	87.9%	94.4%	77.6%
2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00	91.0%	98.1%	87.9%	94.4%	77.6%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	91.0%	98.1%	95.9%	94.4%	77.6%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	91.0%	98.1%	95.9%	94.4%	77.6%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	91.0%	98.1%	95.9%	94.4%	77.6%
2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00	91.0%	98.1%	95.9%	94.4%	77.6%
2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00	91.2%	96.0%	93.7%	95.5%	81.6%
2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:00	91.2%	96.0%	93.7%	95.5%	81.6%
2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:00	91.2%	96.0%	93.7%	95.5%	81.6%
2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:00	91.2%	96.0%	93.7%	95.5%	81.6%
2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00	90.4%	95.9%	93.7%	89.2%	81.6%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	90.4%	95.9%	93.7%	89.2%	81.6%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	90.4%	95.9%	93.7%	95.5%	81.6%
2026-09-15T16:19:08+00:00	90.4%	95.9%	93.7%	95.5%	81.6%
2026-09-15T17:04:22+00:00	90.4%	95.9%	88.7%	95.5%	81.6%
2026-09-15T17:49:29+00:00	90.4%	95.9%	88.7%	95.5%	81.6%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00	90.4%	95.9%	88.7%	95.5%	81.6%
2026-09-15T19:19:43+00:00	90.4%	95.9%	88.7%	95.5%	81.6%
2026-09-15T20:04:48+00:00	92.3%	95.9%	88.7%	95.5%	74.1%
2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00	92.3%	95.9%	88.7%	95.5%	74.1%
2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00	92.3%	95.9%	88.7%	95.5%	74.1%
2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00	92.3%	95.9%	88.7%	95.5%	74.1%
2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00	92.3%	96.2%	88.7%	92.0%	74.1%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00	92.3%	96.2%	88.7%	92.0%	74.1%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00	92.3%	96.2%	88.7%	92.0%	74.1%
2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00	92.3%	96.2%	88.7%	92.0%	74.1%
2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00	91.6%	96.2%	88.7%	92.0%	74.1%
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00	91.6%	96.2%	88.7%	92.0%	74.1%
2026-09-16T03:36:14+00:00	91.6%	96.2%	88.7%	92.0%	74.1%
2026-09-16T04:21:32+00:00	91.6%	96.2%	88.7%	92.0%	74.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	>99%	100.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	99%	96.9°F	2.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	96%	96.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	96.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	97.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	95.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	74%	93.8°F	3.6°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE92
Opened Sep 10 · 03:10 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 92°F+ · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗