KBNA / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 16 · 04:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

92%

89%

74%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 85.1¢Risks 85.15u

ICONNO 14.9¢Risks 14.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.85u · ICON −14.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	70.4%	—	—	40.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	60.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	86.7%	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	69.4%	—	—	55.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	41.6%	52.1%	36.9%	—	38.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	61.6%	86.9%	54.4%	—	51.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	85.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	67.0%	85.8%	55.3%	57.6%	53.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	87.6%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	52.4%	93.1%	54.8%	—	67.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	38.7%	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	65.5%	95.1%	49.2%	—	77.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	60.2%	94.6%	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	84.4%	93.2%	47.4%	—	73.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	81.0%	95.2%	—	—	81.6%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	82.8%	95.9%	31.4%	—	77.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	79.0%	93.9%	—	—	74.7%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	46.1%	91.4%	54.9%	—	85.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	84.8%	94.8%	—	—	86.5%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	40.8%	—	40.8%	82.4%	83.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	83.7%	97.2%	—	—	85.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	81.0%	97.6%	52.2%	—	91.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	87.1%	95.8%	0.3%	—	90.8%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	82.5%	96.2%	41.9%	91.0%	91.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	91.3%	95.5%	61.9%	—	91.3%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	92.5%	94.1%	61.1%	93.3%	91.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	93.2%	97.2%	62.7%	—	86.5%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	89.3%	96.5%	61.9%	94.7%	86.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	94.6%	98.6%	63.7%	—	87.5%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	94.1%	98.7%	66.9%	95.6%	93.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	94.0%	94.8%	54.5%	—	88.8%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	94.8%	98.0%	63.9%	95.9%	92.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	96.9%	99.8%	84.0%	—	95.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	>99%	100.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	99%	96.9°F	2.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	96%	96.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	96.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	97.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	95.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	74%	93.8°F	3.6°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE92
Opened Sep 10 · 03:10 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 92°F+ · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗