KBNA / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 96°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Sep 14 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

70%

64%

56%

36%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 56.1¢Risks 56.10u

ICONNO 43.9¢Risks 43.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.90u · ICON −43.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	11.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	46.2%	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	67.6%	—	—	14.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	43.3%	—	—	29.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	18.0%	25.7%	14.9%	—	16.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	33.0%	65.0%	26.6%	—	24.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	37.2%	62.0%	26.4%	28.3%	24.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	64.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	23.0%	75.2%	24.8%	—	35.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	13.5%	75.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	33.0%	79.3%	19.5%	—	46.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	27.4%	77.4%	—	—	38.2%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	55.2%	73.1%	17.2%	—	40.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	49.1%	77.8%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	50.9%	79.1%	7.9%	—	42.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	44.3%	72.4%	—	—	38.8%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	14.2%	65.2%	19.7%	—	53.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	51.0%	73.5%	—	—	54.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	10.3%	—	10.3%	45.9%	47.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	46.8%	80.2%	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	41.3%	81.0%	14.9%	—	60.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	50.0%	72.4%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	40.8%	73.0%	8.5%	57.0%	58.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	56.0%	68.5%	18.3%	—	56.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	57.4%	62.3%	16.6%	59.9%	53.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	57.7%	73.1%	16.6%	—	42.3%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	46.0%	68.1%	14.9%	60.6%	40.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	58.3%	78.9%	14.7%	—	40.3%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	54.3%	77.8%	15.4%	60.1%	51.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	51.5%	54.5%	8.0%	—	38.1%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	51.6%	68.3%	11.0%	56.3%	43.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	58.2%	87.7%	25.4%	—	51.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	76%	98.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	74%	96.9°F	2.1°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	96.9°F	2.6°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	97.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	96.1°F	3.6°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	96.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
ICON	36%	94.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE96
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 96°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗