KBNA / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 96°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Sep 14 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

70%

64%

56%

36%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 56.1¢Risks 56.10u

ICONNO 43.9¢Risks 43.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.90u · ICON −43.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T15:20:09+00:00	60.0%	42.4%	41.8%	41.4%	65.8%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	60.0%	42.4%	41.8%	41.4%	65.8%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	60.0%	42.4%	41.8%	41.4%	65.8%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	60.0%	42.4%	39.8%	41.4%	65.8%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	60.0%	42.4%	39.8%	41.4%	65.8%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	60.0%	42.4%	39.8%	41.4%	65.8%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	54.2%	42.4%	39.8%	41.4%	61.8%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	54.2%	42.4%	39.8%	41.4%	61.8%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	54.2%	42.4%	39.8%	41.4%	61.8%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	54.2%	42.4%	39.8%	41.4%	61.8%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	54.2%	42.4%	39.8%	56.3%	61.8%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	54.2%	40.9%	36.9%	56.3%	61.8%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	54.2%	40.9%	36.9%	56.3%	61.8%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	54.2%	40.9%	36.9%	56.3%	61.8%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	56.7%	40.9%	36.9%	56.3%	61.8%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	56.7%	40.9%	36.9%	56.3%	61.8%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	56.7%	40.9%	36.9%	56.3%	61.8%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	56.7%	40.9%	36.9%	56.3%	61.8%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	56.7%	40.9%	36.9%	56.3%	61.8%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	56.7%	40.9%	36.9%	56.3%	61.8%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	56.7%	40.9%	36.9%	56.3%	61.8%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	56.7%	40.9%	36.9%	56.3%	61.8%
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	59.8%	40.9%	36.9%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	59.8%	40.9%	36.9%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	59.8%	40.9%	36.9%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	59.8%	40.9%	36.9%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	59.8%	64.0%	40.2%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	59.8%	64.0%	40.2%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	59.8%	64.0%	40.2%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	59.8%	64.0%	40.2%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	60.7%	64.0%	40.2%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	60.7%	64.0%	40.2%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	60.7%	65.5%	40.2%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	60.7%	65.5%	40.2%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	61.5%	65.5%	41.3%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	61.5%	65.5%	56.5%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	61.5%	65.5%	56.5%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	61.5%	65.5%	56.5%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	61.5%	65.5%	56.5%	70.9%	54.1%
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	67.3%	65.5%	56.5%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	67.3%	65.5%	56.5%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	67.3%	65.5%	56.5%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	67.3%	65.5%	56.5%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-09-14T10:57:25+00:00	67.3%	70.4%	56.5%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	67.3%	70.4%	56.5%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-09-14T12:27:38+00:00	67.3%	70.4%	56.5%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	67.3%	70.4%	56.5%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-09-14T13:57:48+00:00	63.8%	70.3%	56.5%	76.5%	35.7%
2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00	63.8%	70.3%	56.5%	76.5%	35.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	76%	98.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	74%	96.9°F	2.1°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	96.9°F	2.6°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	97.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	96.1°F	3.6°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	96.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
ICON	36%	94.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE96
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 96°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗