KBNA / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 98°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Sep 16 · 02:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

43%

36%

29%

15%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.0¢Risks 31.00u

ICONNO 69.0¢Risks 69.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.00u · ICON −69.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	34.1%	—	—	11.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	55.2%	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	30.6%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	10.2%	15.8%	8.2%	—	9.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	21.0%	50.7%	16.1%	—	14.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	23.9%	46.9%	15.5%	16.9%	14.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	49.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	12.7%	61.0%	14.0%	—	22.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	6.5%	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	19.5%	65.5%	10.1%	—	30.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	15.2%	62.6%	—	—	23.3%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	37.9%	57.0%	8.3%	—	24.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	31.8%	62.4%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	33.0%	63.6%	3.0%	—	25.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	26.9%	54.7%	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	5.9%	46.1%	9.0%	—	34.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	31.7%	55.0%	—	—	34.4%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	3.8%	—	3.8%	26.8%	28.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	27.1%	62.5%	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	22.1%	62.9%	5.6%	—	39.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	28.6%	51.1%	0.0%	—	35.7%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	20.7%	51.2%	2.5%	34.1%	35.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	32.5%	45.2%	6.6%	—	32.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	33.1%	37.7%	5.5%	35.4%	29.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	32.5%	48.7%	5.3%	—	20.0%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	22.0%	42.0%	4.3%	34.3%	18.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	31.2%	54.2%	4.0%	—	17.3%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	26.8%	51.4%	4.0%	31.8%	24.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	23.6%	26.0%	1.5%	—	14.4%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	22.6%	37.6%	2.2%	26.3%	17.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	26.7%	63.0%	6.8%	—	21.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	98.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	97.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	96.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	96.9°F	2.3°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	96.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	95.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	15%	93.8°F	3.6°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 98°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE98
Opened Sep 14 · 15:28 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 98°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗