KBNA / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 98°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Sep 16 · 02:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

43%

36%

29%

15%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.0¢Risks 31.00u

ICONNO 69.0¢Risks 69.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.00u · ICON −69.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-14T15:28:38+00:00	45.3%	42.4%	35.1%	59.5%	17.6%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	45.3%	42.4%	35.1%	59.5%	17.6%
2026-09-14T16:58:56+00:00	45.3%	42.4%	32.4%	59.5%	17.6%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	45.3%	42.4%	32.4%	59.5%	17.6%
2026-09-14T18:29:10+00:00	45.3%	42.4%	32.4%	59.5%	17.6%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	45.3%	42.4%	32.4%	59.5%	17.6%
2026-09-14T19:59:20+00:00	49.1%	42.4%	32.4%	55.7%	17.6%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	49.1%	42.4%	32.4%	55.7%	17.6%
2026-09-14T21:29:31+00:00	49.1%	42.4%	32.4%	55.7%	17.6%
2026-09-14T22:14:36+00:00	49.1%	42.4%	32.4%	55.7%	17.6%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	49.1%	44.1%	29.4%	55.7%	17.6%
2026-09-14T23:44:50+00:00	49.1%	44.1%	29.4%	55.7%	17.7%
2026-09-15T00:29:56+00:00	49.1%	44.1%	29.4%	55.7%	17.7%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	49.1%	44.1%	29.4%	55.7%	17.7%
2026-09-15T02:00:09+00:00	47.2%	44.1%	29.4%	55.7%	17.7%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	47.2%	44.1%	29.4%	55.7%	17.7%
2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00	47.2%	44.1%	29.4%	55.7%	17.7%
2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00	47.2%	44.1%	29.4%	55.7%	17.7%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	47.2%	44.1%	51.1%	55.7%	17.7%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	47.2%	44.1%	51.1%	55.7%	17.7%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	47.2%	44.1%	51.1%	55.7%	17.7%
2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00	47.2%	44.1%	51.1%	55.7%	17.7%
2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00	46.1%	44.1%	51.1%	54.2%	21.5%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	46.1%	44.1%	51.1%	54.2%	21.5%
2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00	46.1%	44.1%	51.1%	54.2%	21.5%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	46.1%	44.1%	51.1%	54.2%	21.5%
2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00	46.1%	34.7%	40.7%	54.2%	21.5%
2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:00	46.1%	34.7%	40.7%	54.2%	21.5%
2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:00	46.1%	34.7%	40.7%	54.2%	21.5%
2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:00	46.1%	34.7%	40.7%	54.2%	21.5%
2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00	44.2%	34.8%	40.7%	53.1%	21.6%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	44.2%	34.8%	40.7%	53.1%	21.6%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	44.2%	34.8%	40.7%	54.2%	21.6%
2026-09-15T16:19:08+00:00	44.2%	34.8%	40.7%	54.2%	21.6%
2026-09-15T17:04:22+00:00	44.2%	34.8%	28.8%	54.2%	21.6%
2026-09-15T17:49:29+00:00	44.2%	34.8%	28.8%	54.2%	21.6%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00	44.2%	34.8%	28.8%	54.2%	21.6%
2026-09-15T19:19:43+00:00	44.2%	34.8%	28.8%	54.2%	21.6%
2026-09-15T20:04:48+00:00	49.0%	34.8%	28.8%	54.2%	14.9%
2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00	49.0%	34.8%	28.8%	54.2%	14.9%
2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00	49.0%	34.8%	28.8%	54.2%	14.9%
2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00	49.0%	34.8%	28.8%	54.2%	14.9%
2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00	49.0%	36.1%	28.8%	42.6%	14.9%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00	49.0%	36.1%	28.8%	42.6%	14.9%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00	49.0%	36.1%	28.8%	42.6%	14.9%
2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00	49.0%	36.1%	28.8%	42.6%	14.9%
2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00	47.1%	36.1%	28.8%	42.6%	14.9%
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00	47.1%	36.1%	28.8%	42.6%	14.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	98.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	97.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	96.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	96.9°F	2.3°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	96.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	95.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	15%	93.8°F	3.6°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 98°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE98
Opened Sep 14 · 15:28 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 98°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗