KBNA / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Sep 13 · 16:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

79%

78%

72%

45%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 63.8¢Risks 63.85u

WN2NO 36.2¢Risks 36.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +36.15u · WN2 −36.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	59.9%	—	—	25.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	70.9%	—	—	37.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	49.4%	—	—	11.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	15.5%	64.5%	—	—	23.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	43.7%	17.1%	20.9%	43.0%	29.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	29.7%	81.6%	25.4%	—	40.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	38.7%	90.7%	22.8%	—	57.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	69.5%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	50.0%	85.5%	14.9%	—	53.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	13.0%	79.3%	—	—	56.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	67.8%	84.8%	10.4%	—	58.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	32.6%	85.3%	—	—	51.7%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	68.6%	19.0%	—	69.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	16.1%	86.5%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	7.6%	—	63.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	14.8%	92.3%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	36.6%	87.4%	21.0%	—	74.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	70.9%	85.4%	—	—	68.3%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	52.1%	83.7%	12.3%	15.1%	78.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	73.8%	90.4%	—	—	78.7%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	80.2%	89.1%	13.1%	16.2%	77.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	81.0%	91.7%	0.0%	—	72.4%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	77.6%	94.9%	12.1%	—	71.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	73.7%	94.5%	9.7%	—	70.7%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	76.4%	92.9%	24.6%	74.4%	82.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	70.9%	90.2%	16.6%	—	75.2%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	77.0%	92.1%	18.2%	74.9%	74.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.6%	81.8%	91.9%	22.1%	—	72.4%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	82.8%	80.9%	42.8%	72.0%	74.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	77.6%	86.4%	32.5%	—	48.5%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	73.7%	90.4%	46.8%	72.4%	43.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	81.9%	94.2%	56.6%	—	71.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	83%	99.3°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	96.5°F	2.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	78%	98.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	97.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	95.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	94.7°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	94.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260917-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗