KBNA / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Sep 13 · 16:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

79%

78%

72%

45%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 63.8¢Risks 63.85u

WN2NO 36.2¢Risks 36.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +36.15u · WN2 −36.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00	61.0%	29.9%	46.4%	80.4%	59.4%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	61.0%	29.9%	46.4%	80.4%	59.4%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	61.0%	29.9%	46.4%	80.4%	59.4%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00	61.0%	29.9%	46.4%	80.4%	59.4%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00	61.0%	29.9%	46.4%	80.4%	59.4%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00	61.0%	29.9%	46.4%	80.4%	59.4%
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	63.3%	29.9%	46.4%	51.4%	76.7%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	63.3%	29.9%	46.4%	51.4%	76.7%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	63.3%	29.9%	46.4%	51.4%	76.7%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	63.3%	29.9%	46.4%	51.4%	76.7%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	63.3%	29.9%	46.4%	51.4%	76.7%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	63.3%	50.0%	42.3%	51.4%	76.7%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	63.3%	50.0%	42.3%	51.4%	76.7%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	63.3%	50.0%	42.3%	51.4%	76.7%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	65.5%	50.0%	42.3%	51.4%	76.7%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	65.6%	50.0%	42.3%	51.1%	76.7%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	67.8%	57.6%	41.4%	70.2%	77.7%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	67.8%	57.6%	41.4%	70.2%	77.7%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	67.8%	57.6%	41.4%	70.2%	77.7%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	67.8%	57.6%	41.4%	70.2%	77.7%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	67.8%	57.6%	41.4%	70.2%	77.7%
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	67.2%	57.6%	41.4%	82.8%	78.5%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	67.2%	57.6%	41.4%	82.8%	78.5%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	67.2%	57.6%	41.4%	82.8%	78.5%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	67.2%	57.6%	41.4%	82.8%	78.5%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	67.2%	77.6%	44.9%	82.8%	78.5%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	67.2%	77.6%	44.9%	82.8%	78.5%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	67.2%	77.6%	44.9%	82.8%	78.5%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	67.2%	77.6%	44.9%	82.8%	78.5%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	71.6%	77.6%	44.9%	82.8%	78.5%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	71.6%	77.6%	44.9%	82.8%	78.5%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	71.6%	78.8%	44.9%	82.8%	78.5%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	71.6%	78.8%	44.9%	82.8%	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	83%	99.3°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	96.5°F	2.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	78%	98.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	97.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	95.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	94.7°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	94.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260917-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗