KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Sep 18 · 06:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

38%

30%

18%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.1¢Risks 31.10u

WN2NO 68.9¢Risks 68.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.90u · WN2 −68.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	10.3%	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	0.4%	—	18.0%	1.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	2.2%	1.1%	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	1.7%	8.7%	2.7%	—	13.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	7.6%	3.1%	—	11.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	27.0%	1.8%	—	21.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	2.5%	9.0%	—	26.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	3.4%	—	22.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	39.8%	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	37.1%	8.0%	—	36.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	7.8%	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	45.4%	5.8%	—	28.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	7.0%	45.3%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	24.0%	61.5%	2.9%	—	35.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	43.0%	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	34.9%	60.2%	1.9%	—	25.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	28.8%	48.9%	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	36.1%	44.5%	4.2%	21.3%	35.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	38.9%	41.0%	0.0%	—	27.6%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	37.4%	54.6%	2.9%	15.3%	30.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	47.6%	57.2%	4.3%	—	24.4%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	32.0%	55.0%	5.5%	—	26.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	31.4%	48.7%	1.9%	—	12.2%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	26.2%	58.0%	3.0%	20.0%	10.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	33.8%	54.2%	6.7%	—	13.9%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	37.2%	30.5%	5.5%	21.2%	19.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	28.5%	29.8%	5.6%	—	3.2%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	22.6%	45.3%	5.7%	15.2%	5.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	35.5%	41.8%	10.7%	—	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	54%	99.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	98.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	98.1°F	2.7°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	98.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	98.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-18 02:00	Pending
ICON	18%	96.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	94.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 11 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗