KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

93%

89%

89%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 92.3¢Risks 23.09u

ICONNO 7.7¢Risks 1.91u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +1.91u · ICON −1.91u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	74.1%	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	48.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	17.2%	—	—	34.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	30.6%	—	88.6%	50.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	57.4%	46.0%	—	—	76.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	56.3%	82.5%	64.4%	—	88.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	83.0%	69.6%	—	88.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	97.0%	65.6%	—	95.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	73.9%	89.6%	—	97.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	81.6%	—	97.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	99.4%	—	—	97.8%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	99.4%	92.7%	—	99.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	93.5%	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	99.8%	92.4%	—	99.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	94.7%	99.9%	—	—	99.6%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	99.3%	100.0%	89.8%	—	99.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	98.1%	99.9%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	99.9%	100.0%	90.1%	—	99.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	99.8%	100.0%	—	—	99.7%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.9%	100.0%	96.7%	99.7%	99.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	37.8%	—	99.9%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	97.1%	99.7%	100.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	98.6%	—	99.9%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.3%	—	100.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	98.4%	—	99.9%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.4%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	92.8°F	3.6°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	96.0°F	6.2°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	93.4°F	4.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	93.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	89%	98.4°F	9.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	87.4°F	8.8°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 11 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗