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KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
96%
HRES
94%
WN2
93%
AIFS
89%
ICON
89%
Consensus
94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 92.3¢Risks 23.09u
VS
ICONNO 7.7¢Risks 1.91u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +1.91u · ICON −1.91u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00AIFS Single: 89.4% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00AIFS Single: 89.4% · 2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.0% · 2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.0% · 2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.0% · 2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.0% · 2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.6% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.0% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.0% · 2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.0% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.0% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.0% · 2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00IFS HRES: 96.3% · 2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00IFS HRES: 96.3% · 2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00IFS HRES: 96.3% · 2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00IFS HRES: 96.3% · 2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00IFS HRES: 96.3% · 2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00IFS HRES: 96.3% · 2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00IFS HRES: 96.3% · 2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00IFS HRES: 96.3% · 2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00IFS HRES: 96.3% · 2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00IFS HRES: 96.3% · 2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00IFS HRES: 96.3% · 2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00IFS HRES: 93.9% · 2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00IFS HRES: 93.9% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00IFS HRES: 93.9% · 2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00IFS HRES: 93.9% · 2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00IFS HRES: 93.9% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00IFS HRES: 93.9% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00IFS HRES: 93.9% · 2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00IFS HRES: 93.9% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00IFS HRES: 93.9% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00IFS HRES: 93.9% · 2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00ICON: 69.1% · 2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00ICON: 69.1% · 2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00ICON: 69.1% · 2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00ICON: 69.1% · 2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:0009-11 11:2909-11 19:0109-12 02:32
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:0092.2%96.0%89.3%96.3%69.8%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:0092.2%96.0%89.3%96.3%69.8%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:0092.2%96.0%89.3%96.3%69.8%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:0095.6%96.0%89.3%96.3%69.8%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:0095.6%96.6%89.2%96.3%69.8%
2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:0095.6%95.6%89.2%96.3%69.8%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:0095.6%95.6%89.2%96.3%69.8%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:0095.6%95.6%89.2%96.3%69.1%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:0095.6%95.6%92.0%96.3%69.1%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:0095.6%95.6%92.0%96.3%69.1%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:0095.6%95.6%92.0%96.3%69.1%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:0090.1%95.6%92.0%93.9%88.7%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:0090.1%95.6%92.0%93.9%88.7%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:0090.1%95.6%92.0%93.9%88.7%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:0090.1%95.6%92.0%93.9%88.7%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:0090.1%95.6%92.0%93.9%88.7%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:0090.1%96.0%92.6%93.9%88.7%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:0090.1%96.0%92.6%93.9%88.7%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:0090.1%96.0%92.6%93.9%88.7%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:0089.4%96.0%92.6%93.9%88.7%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:0089.4%96.0%92.6%93.9%88.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble96%92.8°F3.6°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
IFS HRES94%96.0°F6.2°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 293%93.4°F4.8°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending
AIFS Single89%93.4°F5.5°F2026-09-11 18:00Pending
ICON89%98.4°F9.8°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending
National Blend54%87.4°F8.8°F2026-09-11 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 11 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗