KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

96%

95%

84%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 92.2¢Risks 46.12u

WN2NO 7.8¢Risks 3.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +3.88u · WN2 −3.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	58.2%	—	—	51.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	7.8%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	16.0%	—	76.4%	31.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	37.4%	27.1%	—	—	58.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	35.6%	65.7%	43.7%	—	74.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	65.7%	48.5%	—	74.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	90.3%	43.2%	—	86.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	51.6%	74.5%	—	91.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	—	60.7%	—	91.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	97.0%	—	—	91.5%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	96.9%	78.6%	—	96.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	79.8%	90.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	98.6%	77.0%	—	96.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	81.7%	98.8%	—	—	97.1%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	95.8%	99.7%	70.4%	—	98.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	99.0%	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	98.6%	99.8%	69.7%	—	97.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	93.5%	98.2%	99.6%	—	—	97.4%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	99.1%	99.5%	84.5%	97.4%	99.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	99.5%	99.5%	12.3%	—	98.7%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	99.5%	99.9%	84.7%	97.1%	99.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	97.1%	99.9%	99.9%	90.3%	—	99.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	99.6%	99.9%	93.7%	—	99.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	99.7%	99.9%	87.8%	—	98.1%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	99.7%	100.0%	93.0%	99.4%	98.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.9%	100.0%	97.7%	—	99.2%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	100.0%	99.9%	97.9%	99.8%	99.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	99.9%	99.9%	98.6%	—	97.3%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	99.9%	100.0%	99.1%	99.8%	99.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	96.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	98.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	96%	99.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	99.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	86%	95.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 16:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	93.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	82%	93.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 11 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗