KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

96%

95%

84%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 92.2¢Risks 46.12u

WN2NO 7.8¢Risks 3.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +3.88u · WN2 −3.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00	80.8%	53.9%	63.9%	90.4%	58.5%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	80.8%	53.9%	63.9%	90.4%	58.5%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	80.8%	53.9%	63.9%	90.4%	58.5%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00	80.8%	53.9%	63.9%	90.4%	58.5%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	80.8%	53.9%	63.9%	90.4%	58.5%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	80.8%	82.0%	73.0%	90.4%	58.5%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	80.8%	82.0%	73.0%	90.4%	58.5%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00	80.8%	82.0%	73.0%	90.4%	58.5%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	87.7%	82.0%	73.0%	90.4%	58.5%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	87.7%	84.3%	72.9%	90.3%	58.5%
2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00	87.7%	81.4%	72.9%	90.3%	58.5%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00	87.7%	81.4%	72.9%	90.3%	58.5%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00	87.7%	81.4%	72.9%	90.3%	57.7%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00	87.7%	81.4%	78.2%	90.3%	57.7%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00	87.7%	81.4%	78.2%	90.3%	57.7%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00	87.7%	81.4%	78.2%	90.3%	57.7%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00	77.1%	81.4%	78.2%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	77.1%	81.4%	78.2%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00	77.1%	81.4%	78.2%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00	77.1%	81.4%	78.2%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	77.1%	81.4%	78.2%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	77.1%	82.0%	79.4%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00	77.1%	82.0%	79.4%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	77.1%	82.0%	79.4%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	76.0%	82.0%	79.4%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00	76.0%	82.0%	79.4%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00	76.0%	82.0%	79.4%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	76.0%	82.0%	79.4%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	76.0%	82.0%	79.4%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00	76.0%	82.0%	78.8%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00	76.0%	82.0%	78.8%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00	76.0%	82.0%	78.8%	85.5%	81.8%
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	86.4%	82.0%	78.8%	79.1%	96.0%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	86.4%	82.0%	78.8%	79.1%	96.0%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	86.4%	82.0%	78.8%	79.1%	96.0%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	86.4%	82.0%	78.8%	79.1%	96.0%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	86.4%	82.0%	78.8%	79.1%	96.0%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	86.4%	90.3%	77.0%	79.1%	96.0%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	86.4%	90.3%	77.0%	79.1%	96.0%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	86.4%	90.3%	77.0%	79.1%	96.0%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	89.1%	90.3%	77.0%	79.1%	96.0%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	89.1%	90.3%	77.0%	73.8%	96.0%
2026-09-12T15:20:10+00:00	89.1%	92.7%	77.0%	79.2%	96.0%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	89.1%	92.7%	77.0%	79.2%	96.0%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	89.1%	92.7%	77.0%	79.2%	96.0%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	89.1%	92.7%	77.0%	79.2%	96.0%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	89.1%	92.7%	77.0%	79.2%	96.0%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	89.1%	92.7%	77.0%	79.2%	96.0%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	88.4%	92.7%	77.0%	79.2%	95.0%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	88.4%	92.7%	77.0%	79.2%	95.0%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	88.4%	92.7%	77.0%	79.2%	95.0%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	88.4%	92.7%	77.0%	79.2%	95.0%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	88.4%	92.7%	77.0%	88.0%	95.0%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	88.4%	92.7%	81.5%	88.0%	95.0%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	88.4%	92.7%	81.5%	88.0%	95.0%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	88.4%	92.7%	81.5%	88.0%	95.0%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	93.2%	92.7%	81.5%	88.0%	95.0%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	93.2%	92.7%	81.5%	88.0%	95.0%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	93.2%	92.7%	81.5%	88.0%	95.0%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	93.2%	92.7%	81.5%	88.0%	95.0%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	93.2%	92.7%	81.5%	88.0%	95.0%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	93.2%	92.7%	81.5%	88.0%	95.0%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	93.2%	92.7%	81.5%	88.0%	95.0%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	93.2%	92.7%	81.5%	88.0%	95.0%
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	94.8%	92.7%	81.5%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	94.8%	92.7%	81.5%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	94.8%	92.7%	81.5%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	94.8%	92.7%	81.5%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	94.8%	99.9%	82.1%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	94.8%	99.9%	82.1%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	94.8%	99.9%	82.1%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	94.8%	99.9%	82.1%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	95.8%	99.9%	82.1%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	95.8%	99.9%	82.1%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	95.8%	100.0%	82.1%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	95.8%	100.0%	82.1%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	95.8%	100.0%	83.4%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	95.8%	100.0%	83.4%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	95.8%	100.0%	83.4%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	95.8%	100.0%	83.4%	95.9%	96.3%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	96.3%	100.0%	83.4%	95.0%	96.3%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	96.3%	100.0%	83.4%	95.0%	96.3%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	96.3%	100.0%	83.4%	95.0%	96.3%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	96.3%	100.0%	83.4%	95.0%	96.3%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	96.3%	100.0%	84.5%	95.0%	96.3%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	96.3%	100.0%	84.5%	95.0%	96.3%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	96.3%	100.0%	84.5%	95.0%	96.3%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	96.3%	100.0%	84.5%	95.0%	96.3%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	96.4%	100.0%	84.5%	95.0%	96.3%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	96.4%	100.0%	84.5%	95.0%	96.3%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	96.4%	100.0%	84.5%	95.0%	96.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	96.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	98.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	96%	99.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	99.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	86%	95.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 16:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	93.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	82%	93.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 11 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗