KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Sep 13 · 16:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

90%

89%

87%

58%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 77.7¢Risks 77.70u

WN2NO 22.3¢Risks 22.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.30u · WN2 −22.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00	56.5%	53.3%	57.5%	71.5%	72.6%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	56.5%	53.3%	57.5%	71.5%	72.6%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	56.5%	53.3%	57.5%	71.5%	72.6%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00	56.5%	53.3%	56.7%	71.5%	72.6%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00	56.5%	53.3%	56.7%	71.5%	72.6%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00	56.5%	53.3%	56.7%	71.5%	72.6%
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	70.6%	53.3%	56.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	70.6%	53.3%	56.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	70.6%	53.3%	56.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	70.6%	53.3%	56.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	70.6%	53.3%	56.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	70.6%	63.6%	52.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	70.6%	63.6%	52.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	70.6%	63.6%	52.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	74.9%	63.6%	52.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	74.9%	63.6%	52.7%	61.2%	90.4%
2026-09-12T15:20:10+00:00	74.9%	68.6%	52.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	74.9%	68.6%	52.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	74.9%	68.6%	52.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	74.9%	68.6%	52.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	74.9%	68.6%	52.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	74.9%	68.6%	52.7%	64.1%	90.4%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	73.7%	68.6%	52.7%	64.1%	88.5%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	73.7%	68.6%	52.7%	64.1%	88.5%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	73.7%	68.6%	52.7%	64.1%	88.5%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	73.7%	68.6%	52.7%	64.1%	88.5%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	73.7%	68.6%	52.7%	76.5%	88.5%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	73.7%	68.6%	58.9%	76.5%	88.5%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	73.7%	68.6%	58.9%	76.5%	88.5%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	73.7%	68.6%	58.9%	76.5%	88.5%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	82.5%	68.6%	58.9%	76.5%	88.5%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	82.5%	68.6%	58.9%	76.5%	88.5%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	82.5%	68.6%	58.9%	76.5%	88.5%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	82.5%	68.6%	58.9%	76.5%	88.5%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	82.5%	68.6%	58.9%	76.5%	88.5%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	82.5%	68.6%	58.9%	76.5%	88.5%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	82.5%	68.6%	58.9%	76.5%	88.5%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	82.5%	68.6%	58.9%	76.5%	88.5%
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	84.7%	68.6%	58.9%	89.1%	89.7%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	84.7%	68.6%	58.9%	89.1%	89.7%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	84.7%	68.6%	58.9%	89.1%	89.7%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	84.7%	68.6%	58.9%	89.1%	89.7%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	84.7%	97.2%	57.7%	89.1%	89.7%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	84.7%	97.2%	57.7%	89.1%	89.7%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	84.7%	97.2%	57.7%	89.1%	89.7%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	84.7%	97.2%	57.7%	89.1%	89.7%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	86.9%	97.2%	57.7%	89.1%	89.7%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	86.9%	97.2%	57.7%	89.1%	89.7%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	86.9%	97.7%	57.7%	89.1%	89.7%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	86.9%	97.7%	57.7%	89.1%	89.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	96.9°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	90%	99.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	99.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	98.1°F	5.0°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	93.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	93.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	93.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗