KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Sep 13 · 16:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

90%

89%

87%

58%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 77.7¢Risks 77.70u

WN2NO 22.3¢Risks 22.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.30u · WN2 −22.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	40.7%	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	2.9%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	6.9%	—	59.0%	16.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	20.3%	13.2%	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	18.4%	45.1%	24.6%	—	54.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	44.2%	27.9%	—	53.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	76.6%	22.8%	—	70.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	28.8%	52.4%	—	78.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	—	36.1%	—	76.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	89.3%	—	—	76.7%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	88.7%	55.2%	—	88.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	56.3%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	93.4%	51.8%	—	85.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	57.5%	93.9%	—	—	88.2%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	84.1%	97.7%	42.3%	—	91.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	94.3%	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	92.2%	98.0%	39.8%	—	87.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	90.4%	96.7%	—	—	87.4%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	94.1%	96.2%	57.6%	86.9%	93.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	95.5%	96.0%	2.2%	—	91.7%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	84.7%	95.8%	98.5%	55.8%	84.7%	93.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	84.0%	98.0%	98.9%	65.3%	—	92.2%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	95.7%	99.0%	72.4%	—	94.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	96.3%	98.7%	57.7%	—	86.5%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	95.7%	99.5%	68.1%	93.5%	85.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	97.9%	99.5%	82.7%	—	91.3%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	98.7%	97.9%	82.8%	96.0%	95.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.8%	98.2%	98.3%	85.6%	—	78.7%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	89.8%	97.8%	99.6%	88.3%	95.9%	87.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	99.4%	99.7%	95.1%	—	95.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	96.9°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	90%	99.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	99.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	98.1°F	5.0°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	93.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	93.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	93.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗