KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 96°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 14 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

81%

76%

62%

45%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 63.7¢Risks 63.75u

WN2NO 36.3¢Risks 36.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +36.25u · WN2 −36.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	72.6%	72.3%	33.1%	73.1%	77.2%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	72.6%	72.3%	45.2%	73.1%	77.2%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	72.6%	72.3%	45.2%	73.1%	77.2%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	72.6%	72.3%	45.2%	73.1%	77.2%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	72.6%	72.3%	45.2%	73.1%	77.2%
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	78.3%	72.3%	45.2%	82.3%	62.6%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	78.3%	72.3%	45.2%	82.3%	62.6%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	78.3%	72.3%	45.2%	82.3%	62.6%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	78.3%	72.3%	45.2%	82.3%	62.6%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	78.3%	80.8%	45.2%	82.3%	62.6%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	78.3%	80.8%	45.2%	82.3%	62.6%
2026-09-14T12:27:38+00:00	78.3%	80.8%	45.2%	82.3%	62.6%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	78.3%	80.8%	45.2%	82.3%	62.6%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	76.5%	80.8%	45.2%	82.3%	62.4%
2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00	76.5%	80.8%	45.2%	82.3%	62.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	82%	100.2°F	5.1°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	97.5°F	2.3°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	98.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	62%	97.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	96.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	95.7°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	95.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE96
Opened Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 96°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗