KBNA / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 96°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 14 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

81%

76%

62%

45%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 63.7¢Risks 63.75u

WN2NO 36.3¢Risks 36.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +36.25u · WN2 −36.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	5.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	24.9%	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	0.9%	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	2.4%	—	39.7%	7.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	9.0%	5.2%	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	7.7%	25.7%	11.2%	—	34.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	24.3%	12.8%	—	32.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	56.1%	9.3%	—	48.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	12.3%	29.5%	—	57.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	16.2%	—	53.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	72.6%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	—	70.9%	29.9%	—	70.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	30.2%	48.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	79.1%	25.9%	—	64.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	30.1%	79.7%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	60.6%	89.8%	17.7%	—	72.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	79.6%	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	74.1%	90.1%	15.1%	—	64.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	69.3%	85.0%	—	—	63.5%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	77.0%	83.1%	26.4%	61.8%	76.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	80.2%	81.7%	0.2%	—	70.4%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	80.1%	90.0%	23.3%	55.8%	74.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	87.4%	91.8%	30.4%	—	69.6%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	78.3%	91.5%	36.5%	—	73.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	79.1%	89.7%	21.9%	—	55.1%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	76.0%	93.9%	29.5%	69.3%	52.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	83.6%	93.3%	45.8%	—	62.3%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	87.0%	82.8%	44.2%	74.4%	72.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	82.8%	83.8%	47.0%	—	36.6%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	79.7%	92.9%	50.0%	71.0%	48.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	90.1%	92.7%	66.1%	—	69.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	82%	100.2°F	5.1°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	97.5°F	2.3°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	98.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	62%	97.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	96.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	95.7°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	95.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE96
Opened Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 96°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗