KBNA / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 19 · 06:54 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

30%

29%

17%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 29.3¢Risks 29.35u

WN2NO 70.7¢Risks 70.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +70.65u · WN2 −70.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	2.1%	—	19.7%	0.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	19.3%	—	—	8.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	21.9%	1.4%	—	13.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	17.9%	13.6%	—	22.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	6.3%	—	23.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	24.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	21.8%	12.7%	—	34.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	0.0%	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	6.9%	2.3%	—	25.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	0.2%	18.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	18.4%	15.6%	7.7%	—	37.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	32.6%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	23.0%	60.9%	7.0%	—	22.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	28.4%	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	10.7%	32.1%	11.6%	1.0%	31.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	20.4%	53.0%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	21.2%	51.0%	9.4%	—	31.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	23.6%	53.2%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	20.6%	16.9%	7.7%	—	23.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	18.3%	66.4%	0.0%	—	16.8%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	7.2%	66.9%	3.3%	15.3%	14.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	30.4%	71.7%	8.7%	—	19.1%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	32.0%	65.8%	10.0%	12.4%	23.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	21.9%	55.1%	10.3%	—	8.7%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	13.4%	55.4%	12.0%	8.9%	7.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	30.0%	51.4%	12.4%	—	11.1%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	35.8%	51.4%	10.8%	21.2%	22.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	39.5%	42.5%	13.6%	—	12.8%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	33.1%	54.7%	2.2%	11.0%	12.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	35.5%	40.2%	9.2%	—	30.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	100.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-19 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	99.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	99.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	98.1°F	2.7°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	97.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	17%	96.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	94.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗