KBNA / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Sep 12 · 10:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

86%

84%

84%

74%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 83.9¢Risks 83.95u

EPSNO 16.1¢Risks 16.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +16.05u · EPS −16.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	47.6%	—	87.0%	28.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	—	—	—	55.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	89.6%	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	42.6%	—	—	77.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	93.5%	54.2%	—	87.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	92.9%	90.0%	—	94.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	83.1%	—	96.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	96.8%	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	96.6%	92.8%	—	98.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	12.6%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	89.2%	76.8%	—	98.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	44.0%	97.0%	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	97.5%	96.8%	92.3%	—	99.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	99.3%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	98.8%	100.0%	93.7%	—	98.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	99.4%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	97.3%	99.7%	97.6%	79.7%	99.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	99.2%	100.0%	—	—	99.8%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	99.5%	100.0%	97.9%	—	99.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	99.7%	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.7%	99.5%	98.4%	—	99.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.7%	100.0%	45.5%	—	99.7%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.0%	100.0%	97.5%	99.7%	99.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.5%	—	99.9%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	99.8%	100.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	99.8%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	95.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	93.1°F	6.2°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	84%	96.2°F	9.8°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	91.5°F	5.1°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	90.5°F	6.3°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	87.4°F	8.9°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗