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KBNA / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Sep 12 · 10:48 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
94%
HRES
86%
ICON
84%
WN2
84%
EPS
74%
Consensus
87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 83.9¢Risks 83.95u
VS
EPSNO 16.1¢Risks 16.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +16.05u · EPS −16.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 94.2% · 2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00AIFS Single: 94.2% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00AIFS Single: 94.2% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00AIFS Single: 94.2% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00AIFS Single: 94.2% · 2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00ICON: 83.9% · 2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00ICON: 83.9% · 2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00ICON: 83.9% · 2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00ICON: 83.9% · 2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00ICON: 83.9% · 2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:0009-12 07:4809-12 09:1809-12 10:48
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:0094.2%73.7%83.8%85.8%83.9%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:0094.2%73.7%83.8%85.8%83.9%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:0094.2%73.7%83.8%85.8%83.9%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:0094.2%73.7%83.8%85.8%83.9%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:0094.2%73.7%83.8%85.8%83.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single94%95.2°F5.5°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending
IFS HRES86%93.1°F6.2°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending
ICON84%96.2°F9.8°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 284%91.5°F5.1°F2026-09-11 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble74%90.5°F6.3°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
National Blend54%87.4°F8.9°F2026-09-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗