KBNA / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Sep 13 · 03:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

92%

80%

77%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 86.1¢Risks 43.07u

EPSNO 13.9¢Risks 6.93u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +6.93u · EPS −6.93u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	35.8%	—	79.4%	18.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	42.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	82.4%	—	—	65.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	30.0%	—	—	66.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	87.8%	40.3%	—	79.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	86.5%	82.0%	—	89.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	71.7%	—	91.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	92.9%	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	92.2%	85.5%	—	96.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.5%	6.0%	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	79.3%	62.3%	—	95.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	28.1%	92.8%	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	93.5%	92.0%	83.9%	—	98.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	94.5%	97.9%	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	96.4%	99.8%	85.6%	—	96.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	97.9%	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	94.6%	92.5%	98.7%	93.2%	63.4%	98.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	97.3%	99.8%	—	—	99.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	97.9%	99.8%	93.6%	—	99.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	98.6%	99.9%	—	—	99.4%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	97.4%	98.6%	98.0%	94.4%	—	98.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	98.6%	100.0%	24.9%	—	98.4%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	96.0%	100.0%	91.5%	98.6%	98.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	99.8%	100.0%	97.5%	—	99.3%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	99.9%	100.0%	98.5%	98.9%	99.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	99.7%	100.0%	98.9%	—	98.6%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	99.5%	100.0%	99.4%	99.1%	98.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	—	99.6%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.9%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.0%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	98.8°F	6.2°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	97.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
ICON	92%	102.1°F	9.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	92.6°F	4.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	93.0°F	6.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	89.4°F	8.5°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 12 · 11:34 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗