KBNA / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 15 · 04:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

88%

86%

78%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.0¢Risks 89.00u

ICONNO 11.0¢Risks 11.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +11.00u · ICON −11.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	30.2%	—	74.8%	15.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	77.9%	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	24.4%	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	64.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	83.8%	33.6%	—	73.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	82.0%	76.8%	—	86.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	64.9%	—	88.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	89.8%	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	88.9%	80.5%	—	94.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.5%	3.9%	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	72.8%	54.2%	—	92.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	21.4%	89.3%	—	—	7.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	90.3%	88.2%	77.9%	—	96.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	96.4%	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	94.2%	99.5%	79.7%	—	93.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	91.2%	96.4%	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	91.4%	88.4%	97.6%	89.3%	53.9%	97.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	95.3%	99.5%	—	—	98.1%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	96.2%	99.5%	89.7%	—	98.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	97.4%	99.7%	—	—	98.7%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	97.2%	96.2%	90.6%	—	97.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	94.3%	97.3%	99.9%	16.8%	—	96.9%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	92.8%	100.0%	86.0%	97.1%	96.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	99.4%	100.0%	95.2%	—	98.4%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	99.6%	100.0%	96.7%	97.5%	99.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	95.4%	99.3%	100.0%	97.6%	—	97.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	98.8%	100.0%	98.6%	97.8%	97.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	99.9%	100.0%	99.0%	—	98.8%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	100.0%	100.0%	99.2%	99.8%	99.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	—	99.6%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	97.4%	99.7%	99.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	32.4%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	97.7°F	2.6°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	99.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	97%	98.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	93%	94.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	96.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	93.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	78%	94.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗