KBNA / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 15 · 04:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

88%

86%

78%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.0¢Risks 89.00u

ICONNO 11.0¢Risks 11.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +11.00u · ICON −11.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	84.9%	56.3%	65.3%	72.1%	75.3%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	84.9%	56.3%	65.3%	72.1%	75.3%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	84.9%	56.3%	65.3%	72.1%	75.3%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	84.9%	56.3%	65.3%	72.1%	75.3%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	84.9%	56.3%	65.3%	72.1%	75.3%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	84.9%	68.4%	66.3%	72.1%	75.3%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	84.9%	68.4%	66.3%	72.1%	75.3%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	84.9%	68.4%	66.3%	72.1%	75.3%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	89.8%	68.4%	66.3%	72.1%	75.3%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	89.8%	68.4%	66.3%	68.9%	75.2%
2026-09-12T15:20:10+00:00	89.8%	71.7%	66.3%	72.1%	75.2%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	89.8%	71.7%	66.3%	72.1%	75.2%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	89.8%	71.7%	66.3%	72.1%	75.2%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	89.8%	71.7%	67.8%	72.1%	75.2%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	89.8%	71.7%	67.8%	72.1%	75.2%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	89.8%	71.7%	67.8%	72.1%	75.2%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	86.9%	71.7%	67.8%	72.1%	90.0%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	86.9%	71.7%	67.8%	72.1%	90.0%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	86.9%	71.7%	67.8%	72.1%	90.0%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	86.9%	71.7%	67.8%	72.1%	90.0%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	86.9%	71.7%	67.8%	93.4%	90.0%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	86.9%	71.7%	74.3%	93.5%	90.0%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	86.9%	71.7%	74.3%	93.5%	90.0%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	86.9%	71.7%	74.3%	93.5%	90.0%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	91.8%	71.7%	74.3%	93.5%	90.0%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	91.8%	71.7%	74.3%	93.5%	90.0%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	91.8%	71.7%	74.3%	93.5%	90.0%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	91.8%	71.7%	74.3%	93.5%	90.0%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	91.8%	71.7%	74.3%	93.5%	90.0%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	91.8%	71.7%	74.3%	93.5%	90.0%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	91.8%	71.7%	74.3%	93.5%	90.0%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	91.8%	71.7%	74.3%	93.5%	90.0%
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	94.8%	71.7%	74.3%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	94.8%	71.7%	74.3%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	94.8%	71.7%	74.3%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	94.8%	71.7%	74.3%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	94.8%	94.9%	79.0%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	94.8%	94.9%	79.0%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	94.8%	94.9%	79.0%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	94.8%	94.9%	79.0%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	95.5%	94.9%	79.0%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	95.5%	94.9%	79.0%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	95.5%	95.2%	79.0%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	95.5%	95.2%	79.0%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	95.5%	95.2%	79.0%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	95.5%	95.2%	79.0%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	95.5%	95.2%	79.0%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	95.5%	95.2%	79.0%	93.7%	84.3%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	94.8%	95.2%	79.0%	95.5%	84.3%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	94.8%	95.2%	79.0%	95.5%	84.3%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	94.8%	95.2%	79.0%	95.5%	84.3%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	94.8%	95.2%	79.0%	95.5%	84.3%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	94.8%	95.2%	80.3%	95.5%	84.3%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	94.8%	95.2%	80.3%	95.6%	84.3%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	94.8%	95.2%	80.3%	95.6%	84.3%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	94.8%	95.2%	80.3%	95.6%	84.3%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	96.6%	95.2%	80.3%	95.6%	84.3%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	96.6%	95.2%	80.3%	95.6%	84.3%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	96.6%	95.2%	80.3%	95.6%	84.3%
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	96.6%	95.2%	80.3%	95.6%	84.3%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	96.6%	95.2%	87.8%	95.6%	84.3%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	96.6%	95.2%	87.8%	95.6%	84.3%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	96.6%	95.2%	87.8%	95.6%	84.3%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	96.6%	95.2%	87.8%	95.6%	84.3%
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	98.0%	95.2%	87.8%	96.4%	81.6%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	98.0%	95.2%	87.8%	96.4%	81.6%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	98.0%	95.2%	87.8%	96.4%	81.6%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	98.0%	95.2%	87.8%	96.4%	81.6%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	98.0%	99.9%	87.8%	96.4%	81.6%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	98.0%	99.9%	87.8%	96.4%	81.6%
2026-09-14T12:27:38+00:00	98.0%	99.9%	87.8%	96.4%	81.6%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	98.0%	99.9%	87.8%	96.4%	81.6%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	98.0%	99.9%	87.8%	96.4%	81.5%
2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00	98.0%	99.9%	87.8%	96.4%	81.5%
2026-09-14T15:28:38+00:00	98.0%	99.9%	87.8%	96.4%	81.5%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	98.0%	99.9%	87.8%	96.4%	81.5%
2026-09-14T16:58:56+00:00	98.0%	99.9%	89.5%	96.4%	81.5%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	98.0%	99.9%	89.5%	96.4%	81.5%
2026-09-14T18:29:10+00:00	98.0%	99.9%	89.5%	96.4%	81.5%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	98.0%	99.9%	89.5%	96.4%	81.5%
2026-09-14T19:59:20+00:00	97.9%	99.9%	89.5%	88.5%	78.1%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	97.9%	99.9%	89.5%	88.5%	78.1%
2026-09-14T21:29:31+00:00	97.9%	99.9%	89.5%	88.5%	78.1%
2026-09-14T22:14:36+00:00	97.9%	99.9%	89.5%	88.5%	78.1%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	97.9%	99.9%	85.6%	88.5%	78.1%
2026-09-14T23:44:50+00:00	97.9%	99.9%	85.6%	88.5%	78.1%
2026-09-15T00:29:56+00:00	97.9%	99.9%	85.6%	88.5%	78.1%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	97.9%	99.9%	85.6%	88.5%	78.1%
2026-09-15T02:00:09+00:00	98.1%	99.9%	85.6%	88.5%	78.1%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	98.1%	99.9%	85.6%	88.5%	78.1%
2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00	98.1%	99.9%	85.6%	88.5%	78.1%
2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00	98.1%	99.9%	85.6%	88.5%	78.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	97.7°F	2.6°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	99.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	97%	98.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	93%	94.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	96.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	93.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	78%	94.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗