KBNA / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 98°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

59%

49%

22%

20%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.6¢Risks 44.60u

WN2NO 55.4¢Risks 55.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.40u · WN2 −55.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	4.2%	—	29.2%	1.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	29.5%	—	—	14.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	2.0%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	33.6%	3.3%	—	21.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	29.1%	23.2%	—	35.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	12.5%	—	36.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	38.5%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	35.2%	23.0%	—	50.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	0.0%	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	14.3%	5.8%	—	40.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	0.6%	31.9%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	32.2%	28.4%	16.1%	—	54.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	50.0%	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	39.1%	77.0%	15.4%	—	38.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	46.2%	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	22.5%	51.0%	24.0%	3.2%	50.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	37.2%	71.8%	—	—	53.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	38.8%	70.6%	21.2%	—	51.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	42.6%	73.0%	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	39.2%	34.1%	19.0%	—	43.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	36.7%	83.9%	0.1%	—	34.6%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	19.1%	84.7%	10.5%	33.1%	32.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	53.6%	88.0%	22.5%	—	39.3%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	56.2%	84.9%	25.6%	29.8%	46.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	44.9%	78.1%	26.9%	—	23.8%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	33.1%	79.0%	30.7%	25.1%	23.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	56.9%	76.8%	32.5%	—	30.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	64.2%	77.8%	30.5%	47.1%	48.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	68.9%	71.5%	36.6%	—	35.2%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	63.9%	81.9%	11.0%	33.1%	36.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	67.6%	71.9%	30.9%	—	63.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	99.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	98.1°F	2.7°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	98.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	97.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	97.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	22%	94.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	94.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 98°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE98
Opened Sep 15 · 03:30 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 98°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗