KBNA / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Sep 20 · 07:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

24%

14%

10%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.7¢Risks 19.65u

WN2NO 80.3¢Risks 80.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.35u · WN2 −80.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	2.4%	0.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	1.4%	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	4.3%	—	—	2.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	12.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	3.1%	—	25.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	6.2%	19.4%	—	27.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	7.6%	—	21.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	8.4%	15.9%	10.0%	—	44.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	3.0%	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	32.2%	13.4%	12.9%	—	38.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	8.5%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	14.6%	20.8%	12.7%	—	45.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	21.5%	27.9%	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	21.6%	13.4%	9.8%	—	46.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	21.7%	49.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	50.0%	21.0%	10.7%	—	34.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	49.0%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	25.1%	33.0%	9.4%	0.4%	22.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	43.7%	15.0%	—	—	27.1%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	48.9%	23.8%	12.5%	0.1%	32.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	37.8%	10.7%	0.0%	—	18.3%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	35.2%	15.3%	13.4%	5.7%	15.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	39.3%	28.3%	4.5%	—	13.2%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	42.6%	11.2%	6.3%	13.0%	16.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	24.8%	34.9%	9.2%	—	10.3%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	26.2%	21.0%	7.4%	10.1%	5.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	28.8%	11.1%	3.5%	—	10.4%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	23.4%	17.2%	2.1%	8.3%	7.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	23.6%	11.2%	2.2%	—	3.2%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	9.6%	7.1%	1.0%	3.1%	0.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	19.2%	24.1%	2.6%	—	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	100.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-20 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	97.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	97.6°F	2.6°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	98.0°F	2.0°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	95.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	95.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	93.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260920-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 13 · 07:52 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗