KBNA / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

97%

93%

75%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 87.4¢Risks 87.40u

ICONNO 12.6¢Risks 12.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +12.60u · ICON −12.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	50.6%	27.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	47.0%	—	—	53.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	52.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	71.6%	—	—	60.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	32.4%	—	—	88.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	—	72.5%	—	96.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	94.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	84.8%	95.6%	—	97.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	89.3%	—	97.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	97.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	92.2%	96.4%	93.6%	—	99.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	83.7%	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	99.3%	96.6%	96.4%	—	99.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	94.8%	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	97.8%	98.8%	97.3%	—	99.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	97.5%	99.1%	99.5%	—	—	85.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	99.3%	98.3%	97.4%	—	99.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	99.5%	100.0%	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	100.0%	99.6%	98.5%	—	99.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	100.0%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	99.8%	99.9%	98.9%	82.4%	99.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	100.0%	99.6%	—	—	99.9%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	100.0%	99.9%	99.6%	79.4%	100.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	100.0%	99.7%	55.6%	—	99.9%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.4%	99.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	100.0%	100.0%	99.4%	—	99.9%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	100.0%	99.9%	99.8%	99.9%	100.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	101.4°F	6.2°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	99%	98.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	95.3°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	92.6°F	4.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	92.2°F	9.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	86.4°F	8.8°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260920-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 13 · 07:52 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗