KBNA / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

97%

93%

75%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 87.4¢Risks 87.40u

ICONNO 12.6¢Risks 12.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +12.60u · ICON −12.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	98.2%	77.3%	82.8%	91.7%	75.2%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	98.2%	77.3%	82.8%	91.7%	75.2%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	98.2%	77.3%	82.8%	91.7%	75.2%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	98.2%	77.3%	82.8%	91.7%	75.2%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	98.2%	97.1%	92.6%	91.7%	75.2%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	98.2%	97.1%	92.6%	91.7%	75.2%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	98.2%	97.1%	92.6%	91.7%	75.2%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	98.2%	97.1%	92.6%	91.7%	75.2%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	98.3%	97.1%	92.6%	91.6%	75.3%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	98.3%	97.1%	92.6%	91.6%	75.3%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	98.3%	97.3%	92.6%	91.6%	75.3%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	98.3%	97.3%	92.6%	91.6%	75.3%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	98.3%	97.3%	92.0%	91.6%	75.3%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	98.3%	97.3%	92.0%	91.6%	75.3%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	98.3%	97.3%	92.0%	91.6%	75.3%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	98.3%	97.3%	92.0%	91.6%	75.3%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	97.7%	97.3%	92.0%	99.5%	75.3%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	97.7%	97.3%	92.0%	99.5%	75.3%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	97.7%	97.3%	92.0%	99.5%	75.3%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	97.7%	97.3%	92.0%	99.5%	75.3%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	97.7%	97.3%	93.2%	99.5%	75.3%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	97.7%	97.3%	93.2%	99.5%	75.3%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	97.7%	97.3%	93.2%	99.5%	75.3%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	97.7%	97.3%	93.2%	99.5%	75.3%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	99.0%	97.3%	93.2%	99.5%	75.3%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	99.0%	97.3%	93.2%	99.5%	75.3%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	99.0%	97.3%	93.2%	99.5%	75.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	101.4°F	6.2°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	99%	98.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	95.3°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	92.6°F	4.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	92.2°F	9.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	86.4°F	8.8°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260920-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 13 · 07:52 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗