KBNA / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 16 · 22:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

96%

93%

80%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.9¢Risks 44.95u

WN2NO 10.1¢Risks 5.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +5.05u · WN2 −5.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	8.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	24.3%	9.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	11.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	20.1%	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	40.3%	—	—	29.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	9.6%	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	38.9%	—	82.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	54.4%	78.5%	—	85.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	61.3%	—	82.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	66.3%	78.8%	69.8%	—	95.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	48.4%	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	92.3%	78.1%	77.5%	—	94.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	71.2%	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	73.1%	82.2%	87.8%	79.8%	—	96.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	89.2%	92.5%	—	—	46.4%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	90.2%	83.4%	78.4%	—	97.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	91.2%	98.3%	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	81.7%	98.6%	91.8%	82.9%	—	96.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	98.7%	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	95.1%	97.0%	84.3%	35.9%	94.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	98.7%	91.2%	—	—	96.2%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	99.3%	96.0%	90.6%	29.2%	97.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	98.7%	90.3%	10.2%	—	95.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	98.8%	94.6%	93.5%	85.3%	94.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	99.3%	98.4%	84.8%	—	94.5%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	99.6%	94.5%	90.0%	95.4%	96.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	98.7%	99.4%	94.4%	—	95.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	80.9%	99.2%	98.7%	94.3%	96.0%	92.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	99.5%	97.3%	90.8%	—	97.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	99.5%	99.0%	89.2%	97.1%	96.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	99.6%	98.6%	92.0%	—	94.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	98.8%	98.2%	89.0%	95.6%	83.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	99.8%	99.9%	96.3%	—	97.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	98.8°F	3.0°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	103.0°F	6.3°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	97%	96.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	98.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	94%	100.0°F	6.2°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
ICON	93%	97.4°F	4.7°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	93.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260920-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 13 · 07:52 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 91°F+ · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗